New research indicates a critical Atlantic current system, the Amoc, is significantly more likely to collapse than previously understood. Scientists found that climate models predicting the largest slowdown are the most realistic, suggesting an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% by 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse. Such a collapse would have catastrophic consequences, including shifts in tropical rainfall, extreme weather in Europe, and significant sea-level rise. The weakening is attributed to Arctic warming due to global heating, which slows the sinking of cooler, saltier water.
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Utilizing satellite data processing algorithms developed by ICM-CSIC, researchers have detected a reversal in the Southern Ocean’s circulation, the SMOC, a phenomenon never before observed. This shift, identified through satellite observations, shows a sustained increase in surface salinity, indicating that deep water is rising to the surface, bringing with it heat and CO₂. This reversal could accelerate sea ice melt and lead to increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, potentially doubling current levels. The team’s findings highlight the critical role of the SMOC in regulating global climate and underscore the need for further research to understand the cascading effects of this disruption.
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