Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Office of the President, stated that Russia has achieved readiness for a potential attack on the European Union. This assessment indicates a shift in Kremlin planning, where readiness is now considered achievable even while the conflict in Ukraine continues. Russian planning documents suggest a benchmark for operational readiness by early 2027, though Budanov cautioned that this reflects preparation and capability rather than a confirmed decision to attack. This warning aligns with NATO intelligence, which has also identified potential timelines for Russia to regain offensive capacity against alliance members.
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NATO’s latest intelligence assessments indicate a sharp increase in Russian military losses in Ukraine during 2025, with an estimated 400,000 personnel killed or wounded in that year alone. This brings the total Russian casualties since the conflict’s inception to approximately 1.3 million. The Alliance reported that 350,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in action, a figure that aligns with previous casualty-to-fatality ratios. These escalated losses in 2025 significantly surpass those of preceding years.
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NATO intelligence reveals continued, significant Russian missile production, suggesting stockpiling for future large-scale attacks despite a current reduction in missile strikes. This build-up mirrors past Russian tactics of alternating between periods of reduced strikes and stockpiling before launching major offensives. The shift towards increased drone usage doesn’t negate Russia’s need for large-scale missile attacks to achieve military and psychological impact. Intelligence confirms this production alongside reported purchases from North Korea.
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John Q. Hosedrinker