The National Meeting for Unity and Peace in Tripoli on November 15th, brought together nearly a thousand Libyans to reignite the discussion of restoring Libya’s constitutional monarchy by reactivating the 1951 Independence Constitution. This document, the first of its kind in the region, is viewed as the only legitimate framework for stabilizing the country after years of instability, with Crown Prince Mohammed El-Senussi as a unifying figure above partisan politics. For the United Kingdom, which played a key role in Libya’s original independence and has significant strategic interests tied to the country’s stability, supporting a Libyan-led process to restore institutional legitimacy and national unity is crucial. A stable Libya based on the 1951 framework would not only benefit regional security, but also advance the UK’s long-term diplomatic, security, and economic objectives.
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Hannibal Gadhafi, son of the late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, was released from Lebanese custody on Monday after paying a $900,000 bail. This release followed a reduction in bail and the lifting of a travel ban, stemming from his 2015 detention related to the disappearance of Lebanese cleric Moussa al-Sadr. The bail was reportedly paid by a Libyan delegation, and Gadhafi’s defense team withdrew a case against the Lebanese state. Gadhafi had been held in Lebanon for ten years, accused of withholding information about al-Sadr, who disappeared in Libya in 1978.
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Reports suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko are collaborating with Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar to orchestrate a new migrant crisis within the EU. European Commission officials have observed a surge in flights between Benghazi, Libya, and Minsk, Belarus, hinting at coordinated efforts to facilitate irregular migration. This tactic mirrors the 2021 strategy, where Belarus aided thousands of asylum seekers in crossing into the EU, potentially aimed at destabilizing the bloc as Russia prepares for negotiations regarding Ukraine’s territories.
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The Trump administration explored a plan to relocate up to one million Palestinians from Gaza to Libya, potentially offering billions of dollars in unfrozen funds as an incentive. Discussions reportedly involved Libyan leadership, though Israel was also kept informed. The State Department denied the plan’s existence, while Hamas and other parties involved either denied knowledge or expressed strong opposition. The proposal, part of a broader vision for Gaza’s postwar reconstruction, faced significant logistical and political hurdles.
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Despite a judge’s order and the State Department’s condemnation of Libya’s “life-threatening” prison conditions, the Trump administration plans to deport immigrants there, possibly as early as this week. This action follows a federal judge’s ruling against such deportations, which Libya’s government has also rejected. Human rights groups strongly denounce the plan, citing widespread reports of torture, rape, and slavery in Libyan detention facilities. The deportations are part of a broader Trump administration strategy to deport migrants to third-party countries.
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Following the Syrian regime change, Russia’s attempt to bolster its Libyan military base, primarily by transferring equipment from Syria, is facing strong opposition from Libya’s UN-backed government. Prime Minister Dabaiba firmly rejects the use of Libya as a battleground for international conflicts, explicitly forbidding the transfer of Russian weapons. This action is viewed as a significant turning point, potentially jeopardizing Russia’s strategy of maintaining neutrality in Libya’s internal conflict. Simultaneously, increasing US economic pressure, including a potential audit of Libyan finances, is adding to the complexity of the situation and revealing connections between Libyan actors and Russia.
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Following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Russia is bolstering its military presence in Libya. At least three Russian military cargo planes have flown from Belarus to Libya since December 8th, carrying defense materials. This move is likely a response to the increasingly precarious situation in Syria, forcing Russia to fortify its Libyan bases which serve as a crucial staging point for its African influence. Experts suggest this shift reflects Russia’s need to protect its expanded Libyan presence, now that its Syrian foothold is jeopardized. The evacuation of Russian personnel and equipment from Syria is underway.
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John Q. Hosedrinker