The Jobs Report Is Canceled. Here’s What Private Data Shows.
With the official jobs report sidelined due to the government shutdown, the focus shifts to private sector data, and the picture it paints isn’t exactly rosy. While the labor market hasn’t cratered, the available information suggests a modest weakening since the summer. It appears we’re in a bit of a holding pattern – not a sharp decline, but certainly not a surge of growth. The situation reminds me of treading water; we’re staying afloat, but not exactly making progress.
The data sources offer a mixed bag. Some reports suggest a slight decline in private-sector employment, while others show a modest rebound.… Continue reading
Layoffs in the U.S. surged in October to the highest level in 22 years, with over 153,000 job reductions reported, as companies increasingly adopt AI and tighten budgets. This brings the total layoffs this year to 1.1 million, rivaling those seen during the global financial crisis and the pandemic. Despite President Trump’s assertions about the economy, the report highlights a shift in the labor market. The decline in job security and increased job cuts are politically sensitive and come as voters express their economic concerns, as shown by Democratic victories in recent elections.
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The German government has greenlit a historic minimum wage increase, the largest in the nation’s history. This rise will unfold in two phases, commencing on January 1, 2026, when the minimum wage will climb from €12.82 to €13.90 per hour. Further increasing on January 1, 2027, the wage will reach €14.60 per hour, impacting the approximately six million workers currently earning minimum wage.
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The September ADP report revealed a concerning downturn in the US private sector, with a loss of 32,000 jobs and a significant downward revision of August’s figures. This decline, driven primarily by small businesses and widespread across various industries, contrasts sharply with economists’ expectations. The revision was, in part, due to a preliminary benchmarking of data, which adjusted the picture of hiring trends. These findings, coupled with other indicators like the BLS report, point toward a slowing labor market, heightening concerns amidst government uncertainties.
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A recent Labor Department report revealed that the labor market created significantly fewer jobs than initially reported, with revisions showing a decrease of 911,000 jobs from the prior year. These downward revisions, the largest since 2002 and more than 50% higher than the previous year’s, indicated a weakening employment picture across various sectors, including leisure and hospitality, and professional and business services. The adjustments, based on quarterly census data, have sparked concerns about the economy’s health and have drawn criticism of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) data collection methods, leading to calls for new leadership. The White House has cited these revisions as evidence of economic struggles and increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
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Donald Trump’s economy falters as US jobs growth grinds to a halt. The situation is becoming increasingly clear: the economic landscape under Donald Trump is shifting, and the job market, a key indicator of economic health, is struggling. The narrative of a robust economy, often touted, now faces the stark reality of slowing job growth.
The data suggests the labor market is a lagging indicator, reflecting the strain felt by those seeking work. Personal anecdotes highlight the difficulties in finding employment, suggesting that the positive economic figures previously reported don’t paint the full picture. The manufacturing sector, in particular, continues to shed jobs, seemingly unaffected by protectionist measures such as tariffs, which, as some point out, don’t offer the promised benefits.… Continue reading
The latest jobs report revealed a struggling labor market, with only 22,000 jobs added in August and an unemployment rate increase to 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021. This downturn follows revisions to previous months, indicating negative job growth, exacerbated by the administration’s erratic economic policies. Imposing tariffs and causing economic uncertainty created a brutal post-COVID economy, and now, those factors have severely impacted job growth. Moreover, the administration’s response involves blaming others and attempting to downplay negative findings, while also implementing policies that have shrunk the workforce and reduced job opportunities.
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In August, U.S. private sector hiring saw a smaller-than-expected increase, with only 54,000 jobs added, a significant drop from the previous month. This slowdown was attributed to factors such as consumer worries, labor shortages, and AI-related disruptions, particularly impacting trade, transportation, utilities, and education/health services. The leisure and hospitality industry showed gains, but overall, the ADP report contributes to an already concerning labor market picture, further evidenced by rising jobless claims and a decline in job openings. Consequently, market observers are now more convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its upcoming meeting.
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Recent revisions paint a bleaker picture of the labor market. The May and June job growth figures were drastically reduced, with a combined downward revision of 258,000 jobs. Over the last three months, the healthcare and social assistance industries were largely responsible for any job gains. Excluding healthcare, the job market saw significant losses across multiple sectors, including manufacturing, professional services, and retail.
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July’s nonfarm payroll growth significantly underperformed expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, a stark contrast to the anticipated 100,000. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, while June and May’s job growth figures were sharply revised downwards, indicating a weakening labor market. The report prompted a market reaction, with stock futures and Treasury yields falling, leading economists to suggest potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September. Job gains were largely concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while other sectors experienced declines or minimal growth.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker