Following its liberation in November 2022, Kherson, Ukraine, has faced relentless Russian attacks. These attacks include indiscriminate shelling and, since June, daily drone strikes targeting civilians, creating a terrifying environment described as a “safari” by residents. The destruction of the Kakhovka dam further compounded the city’s suffering, flooding low-lying areas. Consequently, Kherson’s population has plummeted to 80,000, a fraction of its pre-war size, as its citizens endure a new wave of hardship.
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Russian commanders in Kherson are refusing orders to launch a suicidal offensive across the Dnieper River, citing plummeting troop morale. This insubordination, reported by the ATESH partisan group, involves sabotage of equipment and even self-harm to avoid the mission. The refusal affects planned assaults on Dnipro delta islands, jeopardizing Russia’s offensive preparations and potentially impacting the war’s duration. Despite increased ammunition stockpiles and preparations, the situation reveals significant challenges to Russia’s manpower and operational capacity.
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On December 21st, Russian forces launched a guided aerial bomb attack on a Kherson oncology center, a heinous act targeting a vital medical facility. Although no casualties were reported due to timely sheltering, the attack destroyed the city’s only radiotherapy linear accelerator. This incident follows a pattern of Russian attacks on Ukrainian medical infrastructure, including previous strikes on children’s and cancer hospitals. Zelensky condemned the attack and reiterated his plea for increased Western air defense systems to protect civilian targets.
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Vladyslav Selezniov, a Ukrainian Armed Forces colonel, predicts a renewed Russian offensive in southern Ukraine, focusing on crossing the Dnipro River near Kherson. This offensive, involving over 120,000 Russian troops and amphibious assets, aims to establish bridgeheads on the right bank, mirroring previous Ukrainian successes. Selezniov anticipates continued reconnaissance efforts and costly assaults, highlighting the Ukrainian military’s ability to effectively counter these attacks. Despite the low probability of Russian success, these actions will pose significant challenges to Ukrainian defenses in the Kherson region.
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John Q. Hosedrinker