Former president Donald Trump responded to a surprising poll from the Des Moines Register that indicated favor was swinging towards Kamala Harris in Iowa, a state that was previously 18 points in Trump’s favour. Trump accused the pollster of being biased against him and urged the state’s farmers to support him. This recent poll aligns with reportedly bleak internal polls for Trump and ongoing trends predicting key swing-state races favouring Democrats. GOP strategist Margaret Hoover believes these internal polls are a cause for concern for Trump’s campaign. Democrats are apparently in a strong position to take on incumbents, according to Race to the WH founder Logan Phillips.
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A recent poll prediction showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa has sparked a dramatic shift in election prediction markets. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll, conducted by highly respected pollster Ann Selzer, found Harris three points up on Trump among likely voters. Consequently, markets such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt, which had previously favored Trump, saw a decrease in his winning probability. Over $174 million has been traded on Kalshi alone related to the election, and Harris’s chances of victory have increased almost 10 points within the span of a week. Despite another favorable poll for Trump, analysts consider the Selzer survey significant due to the accuracy and credibility of previous results.
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A surprising turnaround in Iowa sees Democrat Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump 47% to 44% in a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, despite Iowa’s swing to the right in recent elections. The shift towards Harris is primarily driven by older and politically independent women. Trump however continues to lead with his core base, which includes men, evangelicals, rural residents, and non-college graduates. The poll was conducted from October 28-31 among 808 likely voters, including those who have already voted and those planning to. This development comes as a surprise given the state’s recent electoral history favoring Trump.
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A final poll before Election Day shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump in Iowa by three points, a significant swing from the double-digit lead Trump had over Joe Biden in June. The survey suggests Harris’ popularity surge is partly due to support from older women and independent voters, with her lead among women aged 65 and older being more than two times. Meanwhile, Trump continues to lead among Iowans between 35 and 54 years of age. Democrats aren’t surprised by the poll’s findings, suggesting it aligns with sentiments heard from various voter groups in Iowa. However, the Trump Campaign and Iowa GOP Chair, Jeff Kauffman, dispute the accuracy of this poll, citing an Emerson College poll that shows Trump still leading.
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Vice President Kamala Harris has made an unexpected trip to New York to appear on “Saturday Night Live” (SNL), three days before the election. Harris left for New York after a campaign stop in North Carolina, with her aides confirming the change of plan after Air Force Two had taken off. Harris’ appearance on the show was confirmed by three unidentified sources. Actor Maya Rudolph has been playing Harris on SNL since 2019, a performance that has received critical acclaim, including from Harris herself. Harris’ husband is played by former SNL cast member Andy Samberg, while Dana Carvey portrays President Joe Biden.
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Actor Harrison Ford has endorsed Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the US presidential election, releasing three videos as part of the Harris-Walz campaign. The Star Wars and Indiana Jones actor communicated his frustrations about division in the country and the perceived embracing of global dictators under President Trump. Ford emphasised the important democratic process of disagreement and debate, asserting that “what we need is to work together again.” Although Ford admits to not fully aligning with all of Harris and Walz’s policies, he stands behind their beliefs in science, rule of law and governance for all Americans. He joins a list of celebrities, such as LeBron James and Cardi B, endorsing the vice president and Minnesota governor.
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Donald Trump’s prospects in the upcoming election have plummeted dramatically, with Kamala Harris likely to secure victory, according to data scientist Thomas Miller from Northwestern University. This downturn comes after a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, which was dominated by controversial figures, and led to the alienation of many potential voters. Miller’s model is based on prediction and betting markets, most notably the platform ‘PredictIt’. The prediction shows a significant swing towards Harris. Trump’s lead, which was previously 196 votes, has now reduced to just 80, with further losses anticipated.
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In the lead-up to the presidential election, former President Donald Trump has criticised actress Julia Roberts for her endorsement of his political opponent, Kamala Harris. Roberts narrated a Vote Common Good advertisement, urging women to vote for Harris regardless of their partners’ preferences. Trump voiced his disapproval during an appearance on Fox & Friends, calling the ad “stupid” and arguing that it doesn’t reflect how couples typically behave. The commercial features two women casting their votes for Harris and her running mate Tim Walz, while their husbands look on. The backlash from Trump occurs as Harris concludes a $370 million media campaign.
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Liz Cheney is urging former president George W. Bush to speak out against Donald Trump. During an interview on The New Yorker Radio Hour podcast, she stated that she can’t explain why Bush hasn’t spoken out yet, but she thinks it’s time he does. Cheney’s comments were recorded before Trump made controversial comments about her. Cheney’s father, former vice president Dick Cheney, served under Bush and has expressed his disapproval of Trump, declaring he should never be trusted with power again. However, Bush has kept silent on Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric.
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The article predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election against Donald Trump, becoming the first woman and person of Asian heritage to hold the office. To support this forecast, the author notes Harris’s extensive fundraising efforts, her successful campaign, and the demographic diversification in the U.S. The article also mentions the gender gap in voting, according to which Harris has a significant lead over Trump among women. The author acknowledges this prediction could be incorrect but urges readers to vote for Harris to ensure victory.
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John Q. Hosedrinker