New Zealand has declared prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket illegal under its gambling laws due to their status as unauthorized operators. This decision aligns with Australia’s recent ruling that such platforms constitute gambling, leading to similar regulatory scrutiny. While New Zealand currently monopolizes online wagering through a single platform, this move signals a stricter stance on unauthorized gambling activities.
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Betting markets, such as Kalshi, are offering odds on various scenarios surrounding President Trump’s second term, including a controversial third term (currently at 10% probability) despite constitutional limitations. Simultaneously, the likelihood of impeachment and removal from office has risen from 12% to 17% since his inauguration. These odds are dynamically updated daily, reflecting the volatility of the early weeks of his presidency. Market fluctuations directly correlate with President Trump’s actions and policy decisions.
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