NASA has raised the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, a significant increase from earlier estimates. This 177-foot-diameter asteroid, large enough to destroy a major city, currently holds a Torino Scale rating of 3. While a direct hit remains unlikely (96.9% chance of missing Earth), the potential for localized devastation necessitates further observation. Fortunately, the James Webb Space Telescope will soon study YR4 to refine its trajectory and reduce uncertainty.
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Newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 poses a 2.6% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, a slight increase from previous estimations. This sizable asteroid, estimated at 130-300 feet in diameter, has been assigned a Torino Scale level 3 rating due to its size and impact probability. A level 3 indicates a significant risk of localized destruction should an impact occur. Further observation by the James Webb Space Telescope aims to refine impact probability assessments.
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Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated at 131 to 295 feet wide, has a currently calculated 2% chance of impacting Earth in 2032. Astronomers are utilizing various telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope, to refine its trajectory and size estimations before it becomes unobservable in April. More precise data will help determine the potential impact severity, ranging from localized devastation to regional destruction depending on the asteroid’s actual size. The ongoing observations are crucial for planetary defense, as smaller asteroids, while less frequent than larger ones, can still cause significant damage.
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John Q. Hosedrinker