In an effort to boost recruitment numbers for the war in Ukraine, several Russian regions are dramatically increasing financial incentives for new military recruits. These regions are offering significantly higher sign-up bonuses, with some quadrupling the payments, highlighting a shift away from purely “ideological” recruitment campaigns. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that these efforts are increasingly resembling complex business models rather than ideologically driven campaigns, employing financial incentives, deception, and coercion. These bonuses, often equivalent to several years’ worth of the average regional salary, are in addition to the existing federal payments and the soldiers’ monthly salary, indicating the severity of Russia’s manpower challenges.
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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that high-ranking Russian officials are escalating threats against Finland, mirroring tactics used before the invasion of Ukraine. Key figures like Sergei Lavrov and Dmitry Medvedev have made alarming statements, with Lavrov accusing Finland of shedding its neutrality and Medvedev falsely suggesting Finland is preparing to attack Russia. The ISW believes this rhetoric, similar to the pre-invasion strategy in Ukraine, is a coordinated Kremlin effort. This developing situation warrants close monitoring, particularly given Finland’s recent NATO membership and Article 5’s commitment to collective defense.
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Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president, threatened that continued Western aid to Ukraine would result in Russia occupying almost all of the country, a claim illustrated by a map he posted. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) refutes this, calculating that at the current rate of advance, capturing the territory Medvedev proposed would take approximately 91 years and result in an estimated 50 million Russian casualties. This assertion is part of a Kremlin strategy to justify its aggression and long-term occupation. The ISW concludes that Medvedev’s statement is more of a threat than a realistic projection given Russia’s slow pace of advancement.
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John Q. Hosedrinker