Lithuania’s Public Security Service (VST) has initiated heightened security measures at crucial power infrastructure, including the LitPol Link and NordBalt cable, ahead of the Baltic states’ planned disconnection from the Russian power grid on February 8th. This expedited security transition, originally slated for April, involves deploying advanced anti-drone systems and specialized weaponry to counter potential Russian retaliation. The enhanced security is in response to recent suspected sabotage incidents targeting Baltic Sea energy and telecommunications infrastructure, viewed as part of Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. The move is deemed vital for Lithuania’s energy and national security, bolstering its independence from Russian energy supplies.
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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk revealed Russia’s alleged plan to conduct global acts of sabotage, including targeting airlines with “air terror.” This claim, made alongside Ukrainian President Zelensky, highlights Warsaw’s assertion that Russia is waging hybrid warfare against Western nations supporting Ukraine. These accusations follow previous allegations of Russian involvement in a deadly Azerbaijani airliner crash and plots to place incendiary devices on cargo planes. Poland has already taken action, arresting individuals linked to sabotage and closing a Russian consulate.
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Accusations of Russian involvement in attacks on European transportation infrastructure are mounting. These range from alleged sabotage of railways and GPS jamming to the recent downing of an Azerbaijani passenger jet, mirroring the 2014 MH17 tragedy. While Russia denies responsibility, multiple countries have voiced concerns about a pattern of hybrid warfare tactics employed by Moscow. The Kremlin’s response to these accusations has consistently been denial.
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The Belize-flagged Russian cargo vessel *Vasily Shukshin* spent three and a half weeks loitering near Taiwan’s Fangshan undersea cable landing station before inexplicably returning to Russia. This activity, noted by maritime analyst Ray Powell, follows recent concerns regarding potential Russian sabotage of undersea communication cables. While the Taiwan Coast Guard reported no cable damage, the incident heightens anxieties about Russian capabilities to disrupt critical infrastructure. Experts warn of the significant economic and communication consequences should such sabotage occur.
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The Polish government has identified a Russian disinformation campaign aiming to influence the upcoming May presidential election. This group, linked to the GRU, is spreading false information to fracture Poland’s political cohesion. Daily disinformation incidents number in the thousands, prompting hundreds of security interventions. A comprehensive counter-disinformation plan will be unveiled later this month to protect the election process, as Poland contends with what it describes as a “warm cyberwar” from Russia.
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Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warns that Russia’s hybrid attacks against NATO, encompassing sabotage, cyberattacks, and assassination attempts, “look like war.” He stresses the urgent need for NATO to establish clear red lines and define retaliatory measures to deter further aggression. Landsbergis expresses concern that NATO’s current response is insufficiently swift and decisive, potentially emboldening Russia. He suggests that a sufficiently severe hybrid attack could even trigger an Article 5 response.
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Following recent incidents in the Baltic Sea, Sweden is considering invoking NATO’s Article 4, prompting consultations among member states. This action, only used seven times previously, signals a serious response to escalating hybrid threats. The government emphasizes the need for a comprehensive NATO strategy rather than reacting to individual events, aiming to deter further antagonistic activities. While maintaining a measured approach, Sweden welcomes increased NATO presence in the region.
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The Russian-linked tanker *Eagle S*, seized by Finnish authorities for damaging an undersea cable, was equipped with sophisticated surveillance technology, transforming it into a de facto spy ship. This equipment, also found on a sister vessel, *Swiftsea Rider*, was unusual for a merchant ship and suggests deliberate monitoring of NATO naval activity. The *Eagle S*’s crew, likely aware of the spying, were allegedly threatened into silence. The tankers’ ownership is obscured through complex corporate structures, characteristic of the “dark fleet” known for circumventing sanctions.
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A Chinese cargo ship, the Yi Peng 3, is suspected of damaging a crucial undersea telecommunications cable in the Baltic Sea on November 18, 2024, an act allegedly directed by Russian intelligence. The ship, captained by Russian citizen Alexander Stechentsev, was subsequently detained by Danish authorities. This incident, alongside approximately 150 other reported Russian attacks on NATO countries since the start of the Ukraine war, highlights Russia’s escalating hybrid warfare tactics. NATO faces challenges in responding publicly, balancing the need for investigation with concerns about escalating public alarm.
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For six consecutive nights, Georgian riot police violently dispersed pro-EU protesters in Tbilisi, employing water cannons and tear gas. These actions followed the Georgian Dream party’s decision to halt EU accession talks, sparking widespread demonstrations and condemnation from the U.S. Embassy and NATO. The government, led by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, blames foreign influence and has accused protesters of violence, while the opposition alleges electoral fraud and human rights abuses by police. President Salome Zurabishvili, supporting the protesters, has criticized the government’s response, highlighting disproportionate force and allegations of torture. The ongoing unrest raises concerns about Georgia’s commitment to European integration and its potential drift towards Russia.
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John Q. Hosedrinker