Weather agencies are observing signals that suggest an El Niño may form later this year, a phenomenon that could potentially lead to record global temperatures. While climate models forecast this possibility, experts caution that it is still too early to be certain, with uncertainties surrounding the predictions. If an El Niño does develop, its most significant impact on global temperatures is anticipated in 2027. This comes as the planet has already experienced three consecutive years among the warmest on record, a trend amplified by ongoing global heating from fossil fuel emissions.
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The United States has formally withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement for the second time, marking a complete retreat from international climate governance and leaving the U.S. as the only country to have withdrawn from the pact. This departure, coupled with the administration’s assault on domestic climate policy, risks slowing global climate efforts and pushing the U.S. to the margins. Experts suggest this action may allow fossil fuel advocates to slow the energy transition in other countries and may cause those countries to do less. Despite these setbacks, some countries have taken bolder climate action, yet, any rise in US emissions will make global targets harder to reach, particularly hindering financial assistance to low-income nations.
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Former President Donald Trump, in a social media post, questioned the validity of global warming amid predictions of a historic cold snap across the U.S. This response reflects his long-standing skepticism towards climate change, despite scientific evidence. He has a history of favoring fossil fuels and dismissing climate change as a hoax, evidenced by previous actions. Experts have clarified that climate change encompasses both warming and extreme weather events, and colder temperatures do not negate the overall warming trend. Additionally, the Red Cross has noted that winters are getting warmer but heavier snowfalls are more likely to occur because of the warmer atmosphere holding more moisture.
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On Christmas Eve, Iceland experienced record-breaking temperatures, with Seyðisfjörður reaching 19.8C, far exceeding the average December temperatures of -1C to 4C. This unprecedented warmth, also seen in other areas, was caused by a high-pressure system bringing warm, tropical air to the region. This extreme heat is part of a larger trend, as Iceland is warming due to global heating, leading to occurrences like mosquito sightings for the first time and changes in marine life. Studies show that the Arctic region is warming at four times the rate of the rest of the planet, which is impacting the environment in Iceland.
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Iceland deems possible Atlantic current collapse a security risk, and it’s a concern that resonates far beyond its shores. It’s a sobering thought, but it’s time we acknowledge the potential fallout from a significant disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This isn’t just about a slightly colder winter; we’re talking about a fundamental shift in global weather patterns, and the potential consequences are nothing short of a serious security risk.
The irony isn’t lost on anyone: some might see an AMOC collapse as a solution to global warming, if only because it could bring about a temporary cooling. The reality, however, is far more complex and dangerous.… Continue reading
Despite governmental pledges, the world remains on track for a catastrophic 2.6C temperature increase by the end of the century, according to recent reports. Fossil fuel emissions are projected to rise by approximately 1% this year, hitting a record high, even though the rate of increase has slowed due to a surge in renewable energy deployment. The weakening of natural carbon sinks, such as forests, further exacerbates the crisis. Experts emphasize the urgent need for accelerated phasing out of fossil fuels and a stronger commitment to renewable energy sources at the upcoming climate talks.
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The 2025 State of the Climate report, compiled by an international team of researchers, reveals that 22 out of 34 vital signs of the planet are at record levels, signaling alarming trends. Notably, fossil fuel consumption reached new highs in 2024, contributing to record-breaking global temperatures, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Extreme weather events and ocean heat content also surged, alongside increasing wildfire-related tree loss. Although the report paints a grim picture, it also highlights the growth of renewable energy and rising public awareness, suggesting that mitigation efforts, though urgent, could still limit further warming.
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The Icelandic Institute of Natural History has confirmed the first discovery of mosquitoes in Iceland, with three specimens found in West Iceland. The insects were identified as the species *Culiseta annulata* by entomologist Matthías Alfreðsson after being collected by Björn Hjaltason, who initially spotted the first mosquito in a trap. This find is significant because this cold-resistant species can likely survive Icelandic winters, marking the first time mosquitoes have been discovered outdoors in Iceland. Scientists have anticipated their arrival for some time.
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Negotiations for a landmark deal to reduce global shipping emissions collapsed due to pressure from the United States and Saudi Arabia. The deal, which would have made shipping the first industry to adopt international emission reduction targets, was abandoned after the US threatened tariffs and Saudi Arabia tabled a motion to adjourn talks for a year. The move, viewed by many as a setback for climate action, faced strong opposition from nations supporting the original agreement and the shipping industry, which sought clear global standards. Key countries that initially supported the deal, including China, shifted their positions due to the influence of the US and other dissenting nations.
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A recent report reveals that the Earth has crossed its first catastrophic tipping point with warm water coral reefs facing long-term decline due to greenhouse gas emissions. The report, produced by scientists and conservationists, also warns of other impending tipping points, including the Amazon’s dieback and the collapse of ice sheets. While some experts question the report’s claims about coral reefs, the consensus is that aggressive climate action and improved management are needed. Scientists emphasize the urgent need to stabilize global temperatures to retain warm-water reefs and mitigate the consequences of further tipping points.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood