In 2025, China’s trade surplus hit a record high of nearly $1.2 trillion, fueled by a 5.5% increase in exports, totaling $3.77 trillion, and flat imports. Despite a 20% drop in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, China’s manufacturers expanded into other global markets, especially Africa, Southeast Asia, and Europe. Strong demand for items like computer chips and cars, with auto exports surging 21%, bolstered these exports. Economists anticipate exports will continue to drive growth in 2026, though internal factors like decreased domestic demand may slow future growth.
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China’s trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite Trump tariff jolt. Imagine the headlines: China, against all odds, has shattered trade records, boasting an eye-watering $1.2 trillion surplus in 2025. This achievement is all the more striking considering the “Trump tariff jolt,” a period defined by significant import duties imposed by the United States. It’s almost unbelievable, but it’s the reality of the situation.
It’s clear that the tariffs, while intended to curb China’s economic dominance, didn’t quite deliver the punch they were meant to. Exports to the U.S. did indeed dip, falling by about 20% in dollar terms.… Continue reading
China trade surplus tops $1 trillion for first time on non-US growth, and it’s a milestone that really makes you stop and think. How is this even possible, especially considering the economic climate and the geopolitical maneuvering that’s been going on? It’s almost mind-boggling how the market seemingly sails along, detached from the realities on the ground, or maybe it’s just a sign of how deeply interconnected the global economy has become.
China trade surplus tops $1 trillion for the first time, and it’s largely driven by trade with countries *other than* the United States. This is a pretty significant shift, isn’t it?… Continue reading
China overtakes US as Germany’s top trading partner, and it’s a pretty big deal. It’s a shift that’s getting a lot of attention, and for good reason. It signals a changing of the guard, a re-evaluation of global alliances, and a potential realignment of economic power. So, let’s unpack it.
The immediate reaction for some is a kind of schadenfreude, a “told you so” directed at the U.S. There’s a narrative that America has become, well, less desirable as a trading partner. The sentiment is that the U.S. wants to “produce” everything for itself again, seemingly retreating from its historical role as a global trading powerhouse.… Continue reading
Brazil’s soybean exports are poised to hit a record high, an interesting situation is brewing, and it’s primarily driven by the fact that the US is largely out of the market. This creates a significant opportunity for Brazil, especially with strong demand coming from China. It’s like a perfect storm for Brazilian farmers, isn’t it? They are in a prime position to capitalize on a shift in the global soybean trade.
The shift in demand is a crucial piece of the puzzle. With the US facing challenges in the market, and the tariffs against China, the soybean market dynamics have changed.… Continue reading
Under Trump, US cedes its share of China’s beef market to Australia. It’s fascinating, isn’t it, how shifts in global trade can happen so quickly? I mean, one minute the US beef industry is chugging along, and the next… well, the Aussies are suddenly doing a lot of winning. And we’re talking big numbers – an $80 million per month swing in beef exports, all thanks to a series of events that played out under the Trump administration.
The story really begins with tariffs. When Trump decided to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, China, naturally, retaliated. And one of the first things they did was significantly curb their imports of US beef.… Continue reading
The United States has ended the de minimis rule, which previously allowed low-value imported goods to enter duty-free. As of a specific time, all imported goods, regardless of value, are now subject to tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, potentially impacting prices for consumers. Delivery services globally had already begun making adjustments, with some suspending services while others anticipate delays. While this change could increase costs for some shoppers, it could also level the playing field for some American small businesses by reducing the competitive advantage of foreign e-commerce giants who had benefited from the exemption.
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The European Commission President floated a plan for the EU and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) to form a new global trade initiative. This initiative would overhaul the rules-based global trading order, potentially supplanting the World Trade Organization, with the United States not guaranteed an invitation. The proposal aims to demonstrate the viability of free trade among a large group of countries based on a strong foundation of rules. The President also noted that the U.S. left a certain point.
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The World Bank forecasts the slowest decade of global growth since the 1960s, with 2025 growth projected at only 2.3% and 2027 at 2.6%, significantly lower than previous estimates. This downward revision, impacting nearly two-thirds of countries, is largely attributed to escalating trade tensions, particularly stemming from US tariffs. The US forecast was downgraded due to these tensions and their impact on investor confidence and consumption, while China’s forecast remained stable due to its perceived resilience. Further tariff increases, the report warns, could lead to a global trade slowdown and increased market uncertainty.
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Facing a July 8th deadline for its “90 deals in 90 days” initiative, the Trump administration sent letters urging countries to submit their best trade offers. These letters, a “friendly reminder” according to the press secretary, follow the April pause on new tariffs. However, the need for such reminders has sparked skepticism, with critics questioning the administration’s claims of successful negotiations and the likelihood of meeting the ambitious goal. Social media users have highlighted the shift from assertive pronouncements to what they perceive as pleading with trading partners.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood