President Trump’s newly implemented “Liberation Day” tariffs, impacting imports from 60 countries and including a universal 10% increase, have been met with widespread criticism and confusion. Experts widely condemned the methodology, citing the use of seemingly fabricated tariff numbers and a flawed formula based on bilateral trade deficits, lacking any economic rationale. The tariffs sparked a stock market sell-off and fears of a global recession, with economists and commentators labeling the approach as absurd and illogical. Many believe the tariffs are a politically motivated attempt to address trade imbalances rather than a sound economic policy.
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JPMorgan Chase has raised its global recession probability to 60%, citing the Trump administration’s new tariffs as a major contributing factor. This significant increase stems from a reassessment of U.S. trade policy, now deemed considerably less business-friendly than previously anticipated. The bank highlights the tariffs’ substantial impact, equating to the largest tax increase since 1968 and potentially exacerbating economic hardship through retaliatory measures and decreased business confidence. JPMorgan projects that the full implementation of these policies could trigger a U.S., and potentially global, recession in 2019.
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French Finance Minister Eric Lombard condemned President Trump’s escalating trade war as “stupid,” vowing retaliatory tariffs in response to threatened 200 percent levies on EU alcohol imports. This action follows the EU’s own tariffs on $28 billion in U.S. goods, a response to Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. The conflict significantly impacts French wine and spirits exports to the U.S., with industry leaders warning of devastating consequences from the increased tariffs. Further global tariff increases are expected on April 2nd, exacerbating market uncertainty and potentially triggering a recession.
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President Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, effective immediately, sparked threats of retaliatory measures from the European Union and other trading partners. In response to the EU’s planned counter-tariffs, Trump vowed further escalation, stating that any tariffs levied against the U.S. would be matched. This aggressive trade policy has significantly undermined investor, consumer, and business confidence, fueling recession concerns. The President’s actions have also strained relations with key allies, notably Canada.
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John Q. Hosedrinker