Russia’s Economic Development Ministry drastically lowered its 2025 Urals crude oil price forecast to $56 per barrel, a level unseen since the 2020 pandemic. This significantly undercuts the budget’s $69.70 per barrel projection and the $60 cutoff triggering National Wealth Fund withdrawals. The price drop reflects a global economic slowdown and rising recession fears, resulting in substantial revenue shortfalls for the Russian budget. Analysts project billions of rubles in deficit if prices remain low, necessitating further NWF liquid asset depletion.
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Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns of a potential economic crisis far exceeding a recession, citing disruptive trade policies and a soaring national debt as major contributing factors. He points to the instability caused by President Trump’s tariffs, creating uncertainty for businesses and global trade partners, echoing similar concerns from other industry leaders. Dalio emphasizes the need for strategic handling of these issues to mitigate a severe economic downturn, suggesting a significant reduction in the budget deficit as a crucial step. The unpredictable nature of the tariffs and their potential long-term impacts add to the growing economic anxieties.
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Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, expressed deep concern over the global economic outlook, citing President Trump’s disruptive trade policies as a major destabilizing factor. He highlighted a shift from multilateralism to a more unilateral world order, increasing the risk of global conflict and recession. Dalio emphasized the interconnectedness of economic, political, and technological forces, warning that unchecked U.S. debt and trade disputes could trigger a financial crisis exceeding the severity of past events. He advocates for deficit reduction and a cooperative approach to international trade to mitigate these risks.
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Despite a temporary reprieve from some tariffs, the US stock market experienced significant losses following a brief surge, with the Dow falling over 1300 points. Economists warn that the economic damage from President Trump’s tariffs is substantial and the risk of a US and global recession remains high, despite the 90-day pause on certain levies. While the EU also paused retaliatory tariffs, the ongoing trade war with China, including increased tariffs on both sides, continues to escalate and fuels economic uncertainty. This uncertainty, coupled with existing tariffs, is impacting various markets, including bonds, oil, and the US dollar.
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Escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China reached a critical point as President Trump threatened additional tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China’s vow to “fight to the end” and accusations of U.S. “blackmail.” Trump’s demand for China to withdraw retaliatory tariffs, or face a potential 104% levy on some goods, followed his recent increase of import taxes on Chinese goods to 54%. In response, China announced 34% tariffs on all U.S. imports, threatening further countermeasures. This tit-for-tat escalation has sparked concerns of a global recession, with economists predicting a significant likelihood of both U.S. and global economic downturn.
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In retaliation for President Trump’s 104% tariff on Chinese goods, China implemented an 84% tariff on US imports, effective Thursday. This escalation follows Trump’s expansive tariffs on numerous countries, impacting Chinese exporters significantly and shrinking already thin profit margins. The Chinese government, facing a sluggish economy, is exploring further retaliatory measures, while expressing hope for global unity against what it calls “trade tyranny.” Economists warn of potential global recessionary impacts from these widespread tariffs.
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President Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs on numerous countries, significantly increasing existing rates and targeting China with a 104% levy. These “reciprocal” tariffs, calculated based on trade deficits, range from 11% to 50% and affect major trading partners including the EU and Japan. The resulting economic consequences are projected to include increased consumer prices, potential global recession, and stagflation, with some economists predicting a US recession by the second quarter. Despite warnings and international pressure, Trump maintains his course, rejecting offers of tariff reductions and prioritizing non-tariff trade barriers as key concerns.
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A resurfaced 2024 video shows President Trump expressing his desire for an economic crash before his second term, to avoid association with Herbert Hoover. This wish has ironically manifested as his administration’s tariffs trigger a global market downturn, with major indices experiencing significant drops. Despite the sharp decline and warnings of a global recession, Trump maintains his trade policies are necessary. However, analysts warn of potential domestic economic and political backlash.
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China stocks experienced a significant downturn, plummeting alongside a 9% dive in the Hong Kong market, fueled by escalating anxieties surrounding a renewed trade war. The severity of the drop is causing widespread concern, prompting comparisons to past market crashes and triggering predictions of a potential global recession.
The sheer magnitude of the market decline is alarming. This isn’t merely a stock market correction; it represents a substantial threat to global economic stability. Millions worldwide are already feeling the impact through job losses, dwindling savings, and struggling businesses. The situation underscores the far-reaching consequences of trade disputes initiated by powerful nations, highlighting the devastating ripple effect on ordinary citizens.… Continue reading
President Trump imposed a 34 percent tariff on Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with its own tariffs and import suspensions. Trump, on Truth Social, criticized China’s actions, blaming past U.S. leaders for allowing decades of unfair trade practices. This escalation has caused significant global market turmoil, with major stock indexes experiencing sharp declines and warnings of potential recession. Economists express concerns about the wider economic ramifications of this trade war, particularly for smaller, trade-dependent nations.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood