Facing a potential wheat shortfall due to a heatwave impacting Henan province, China recently purchased an estimated 400,000–500,000 metric tons of wheat from Australia and Canada. These purchases, including several large shipments of milling-quality wheat, mark a return to importing after a period of reduced purchases. The acquisitions are attributed to both weather concerns and attractive pricing, although the purchases may not signify a larger trend due to existing Chinese wheat inventories and slowing economic growth. The deals also included a significant amount of barley from France or Ukraine, a notable shift in grain procurement for China.
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To prevent the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1), the Philippines has expanded its ban on poultry imports to include Indiana, New York, and Pennsylvania, in addition to previously restricted states. The ban encompasses all domestic and wild birds and their products. This action follows multiple H5N1 outbreaks in these US states during January and February. The Department of Agriculture cites the rapid spread of the virus as justification for the broader trade restrictions.
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President Trump and Elon Musk’s shutdown of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), including its Food for Peace program, has left Kansas farmers with a surplus of sorghum, a key component of the aid program. The closure eliminates a crucial export market for Kansas sorghum, impacting the state’s agricultural industry and potentially jeopardizing global food security. Concerns exist regarding the loss of export markets and the economic consequences for grain elevators and farmers struggling with excess inventory. Despite allegations of waste and fraud within USAID, the shutdown has prompted bipartisan calls to reinstate the program due to its significant impact on both domestic agriculture and international humanitarian aid.
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The Russian Grain Union forecasts a significant decline in grain exports, projecting a drop to 48-49 million tonnes in 2025, a third less than the 72 million tonnes exported in 2024. This decrease, attributed to poor weather, seed import bans, and export duties, represents a substantial blow to Russia’s foreign currency earnings. Wheat exports alone are predicted to fall by 28%, resulting in a potential loss of its leading global position in the grain market. The resulting harvest is expected to reach historically low levels.
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John Q. Hosedrinker