The World Bank forecasts the slowest decade of global growth since the 1960s, with 2025 growth projected at only 2.3% and 2027 at 2.6%, significantly lower than previous estimates. This downward revision, impacting nearly two-thirds of countries, is largely attributed to escalating trade tensions, particularly stemming from US tariffs. The US forecast was downgraded due to these tensions and their impact on investor confidence and consumption, while China’s forecast remained stable due to its perceived resilience. Further tariff increases, the report warns, could lead to a global trade slowdown and increased market uncertainty.
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In light of the escalating US-China trade war, Ambassador Xie Feng warned against protectionist policies reminiscent of the Smoot-Hawley Act. He used the analogy of treating underlying causes, not just symptoms, advocating for collaborative global economic growth instead of a zero-sum approach. Drawing on ancient Chinese philosophy, Xie highlighted the Act’s contribution to prolonging the Great Depression as a cautionary example. His message urged a cooperative solution to avoid repeating past mistakes.
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The World Bank forecasts a sluggish 2.7% global economic growth in 2019, mirroring the performance of 2019 and representing a significant weakening. This rate, while manageable, is insufficient to elevate living standards globally. The projection reflects concerns over factors such as potential US tariffs, which could severely impact international trade and overall economic health. This subdued growth highlights the fragility of the current economic climate.
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John Q. Hosedrinker