Four and a half years into the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s protracted war of attrition continues, largely unseen by the Russian populace. President Zelensky’s strategy of “bringing the war home” is evident in Kyiv’s increasingly frequent long-range strikes targeting areas within Russia, including Moscow and St Petersburg. These strikes aim to disrupt the war’s perceived distance for ordinary Russians.
Kyiv’s strategy of “bringing the war home” to ordinary Russians is evident in its persistent long-range strikes on targets deep within Russian territory, including Moscow and St Petersburg. This approach marks a significant development in the ongoing war of attrition, now in its fifth year, seeking to disrupt the perceived distance many Russians feel from the conflict. These strikes aim to underscore the reality of the invasion for the Russian populace.
The recent Ukrainian strike on Moscow’s largest oil refinery, a facility now situated a mere 15 kilometers from the Kremlin, signifies a dramatic escalation and a potent symbol of shifting dynamics in the ongoing conflict. Remarkably, despite having had ample warning and the opportunity to initiate shutdown procedures, the refinery still sustained damage, raising significant questions about the effectiveness of Russia’s air defense capabilities and underscoring Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated long-range strike capacity. This achievement, four years into the war, continues to defy conventional military expectations, showcasing the extraordinary resilience and evolving tactical prowess of the Ukrainian people.
The implications of Ukraine’s ability to execute such a strike are far-reaching.… Continue reading
A prominent House Democrat has voiced strong disapproval of the current US-Iran peace deal, characterizing it as “basically a surrender document.” This sentiment highlights a deep concern that the proposed agreement, rather than securing American interests, effectively concedes ground to Iran after a costly and, by this view, ill-advised military engagement. The core of the criticism appears to stem from the belief that the United States has been maneuvered into a disadvantageous position, forcing an unfavorable resolution due to the initiation of hostilities without a clear strategy or achievable objectives.
The notion of a “surrender document” suggests that the terms of this peace deal are not a result of strong negotiation but rather a capitulation to circumstances created by prior actions.… Continue reading
Russian-installed officials claim Ukrainian drones are dropping mines on a key highway in southern Ukraine, creating an “illusion of a blockade” and targeting civilian vehicles. This tactic is aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines, a capability that has seen a significant leap in Ukraine’s drone technology. While Russia acknowledges the increased danger to its logistics, Ukraine states that military cargo traffic has decreased significantly, and President Zelenskyy asserts that few roads remain safe for the occupying forces. This strategic pressure on Russian logistics, particularly concerning Crimea’s role as a military hub, could potentially bring about a settlement closer by creating an advantage for Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine’s 1st Separate Assault Regiment has employed new mid-range drones to strike critical bridges supplying Russia’s rear forces from the south, as battlefield footage indicates significant damage. Attacks over the past week targeted the Armyansk, Henichesk, and Chonhar areas, key chokepoints between Crimea and the southern front lines. These bridges are vital for Kremlin logistics to the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and the drone strikes reportedly caused fires and severe structural damage. Pro-Russian authorities have confirmed the attacks, with the governor of Kherson noting numerous drone assaults and subsequent damage assessments.
The United States will be hitting Iran “very hard tonight,” and the intention is to eventually take control of Kharg Island and other oil infrastructure, thereby dominating Iran’s oil and gas markets. This strategic move is envisioned as being similar to how the United States is managing Venezuela’s markets, an arrangement that is described as “working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America.” The assertion of overwhelming military superiority is also made, with claims that Iran’s Navy, Air Force, radar, anti-aircraft capabilities, and most of its offensive power are already gone.
The pronouncements about hitting Iran “very hard tonight” and the subsequent seizure of oil infrastructure seem to be part of a broader pattern of communication, where statements are made in their entirety to avoid selective media reporting that might seek to portray them as more moderate.… Continue reading
President Donald Trump on Thursday threatened to seize Iran’s oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island, a crucial export terminal, in the near future. This followed airstrikes conducted by the U.S. military on Wednesday. The president cited Iran’s refusal to agree to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon its nuclear program as a primary reason for escalating military pressure. Despite these threats, Trump later expressed uncertainty about America’s willingness to take direct control of Kharg Island, noting that ongoing talks with Iran continue.
Russian air defenses intercepted at least 22 Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow, marking the third consecutive day of such attacks on the capital. These strikes were part of a larger wave affecting southern and western Russia, with officials reporting the downing of hundreds of drones across the country. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that munitions hit military and oil facilities in various regions, aiming to disrupt Russian logistics and production. Meanwhile, Russia continued its own drone strikes into Ukraine.
Several retired U.S. generals and a former intelligence director believe Ukraine currently holds the advantage in the conflict with Russia, citing Ukraine’s successful retaking of territory and outmaneuvering of Russian forces. This shift is largely attributed to Ukraine’s advancements in mid-range drone strike capabilities, which are now responsible for a significant portion of Russian casualties and are increasingly effective at targeting logistics and resources behind enemy lines. While these operational successes are notable, experts caution that an eventual strategic victory is not guaranteed and the situation remains fragile, with no immediate prospect for a ceasefire.
John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood