foreign policy analysis

Trump Fulfills Bin Laden’s Goal as US Eyes Saudi Troop Withdrawal

US-Saudi relations have significantly deteriorated following Washington’s war against Iran, which has caused regional blowback and led the US to consider withdrawing troops from the Gulf kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to allow the use of its bases for a key operation to clear the Strait of Hormuz, along with its concerns about the war’s destabilizing effects and the US’s subsequent threats, has strained the alliance. This animosity is further evidenced by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s snub of the G7 summit and the kingdom’s push for a diplomatic resolution to de-escalate tensions, even as the UAE maintained a hardline stance. A memorandum of understanding, brokered last month, established a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a timeframe for a permanent resolution, though Israeli officials remain opposed to its terms.

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Trump’s Iran Missile Claim Lacks Intelligence Support

U.S. intelligence reports indicate that claims of Iran possessing missiles capable of reaching the United States in the near future are likely exaggerated. Assessments suggest it could take until 2035 for Iran to develop a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from its existing satellite-launching technology, even with potential foreign assistance. While Iran has a significant ballistic missile program, experts note it is years away from developing the technology needed for an operational ICBM that could strike the U.S. homeland.

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