The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that high-ranking Russian officials are escalating threats against Finland, mirroring tactics used before the invasion of Ukraine. Key figures like Sergei Lavrov and Dmitry Medvedev have made alarming statements, with Lavrov accusing Finland of shedding its neutrality and Medvedev falsely suggesting Finland is preparing to attack Russia. The ISW believes this rhetoric, similar to the pre-invasion strategy in Ukraine, is a coordinated Kremlin effort. This developing situation warrants close monitoring, particularly given Finland’s recent NATO membership and Article 5’s commitment to collective defense.
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Finland’s Defence Forces are closely monitoring the Zapad-2025 military exercises conducted by Russia and Belarus amid heightened security concerns, as highlighted by General Janne Jaakkola. These exercises, occurring against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and efforts to destabilize Western nations, demonstrate Russia’s objectives and available resources. Jaakkola pointed out the potential for the exercises to be a basis for future actions, drawing parallels to the Zapad-21 exercises that preceded the war in Ukraine, while emphasizing the potential for “unexpected turns” during Zapad-2025. In response to the exercises, Poland and Latvia have already taken steps to close their borders with Belarus and Russia.
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Representative Boebert argued that objections to the National Guard’s temporary presence in the city are hypocritical. She pointed out that there was no outcry from Washington D.C. residents or opposing political figures when a substantial National Guard presence was deployed around the Capitol, restricting First Amendment rights. Boebert framed this prior deployment as a similar scenario to the current one, implying that the current objections are inconsistent with past reactions. However, this comparison is a misrepresentation of the events of January 6, 2021, and the reasons behind the National Guard’s involvement.
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During a one-day working visit to Helsinki, Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki met with Finnish President Alexander Stubb to discuss security policies, particularly concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine. Nawrocki stated that Vladimir Putin is prepared to attack other countries, emphasizing that they do not trust Putin. The leaders, both with ties to Donald Trump, agreed on the need for increased pressure on Russia. Nawrocki also criticized Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, for past comments regarding Trump.
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In a recent opinion piece published in Russian media, Dmitry Medvedev accused Finland of preparing for war with Russia. Medvedev specifically cited Finland’s NATO membership, the establishment of a NATO command center near the Russian border, and recent NATO exercises as evidence of a confrontational stance. Both Russia and Finland have been increasing their border fortifications, with Russia responding to Finland’s actions by also bolstering its border defenses. Finland joined NATO in 2023 in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Russia has begun constructing fortifications along its border with Finland, citing increased military activity in the area. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated that the fortifications are meant to enhance border protection, particularly in light of Finland’s NATO membership. This move follows Finland’s official accession to NATO in April 2023, which significantly altered the regional security landscape. The establishment of NATO’s Allied Forces Northern Europe headquarters in Mikkeli, Finland, just 140 kilometers from the Russian border, further fueled Moscow’s concerns.
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On September 1, NATO launched a new command center in Mikkeli, Finland, approximately 250 kilometers from St. Petersburg, Russia, solidifying its presence in the alliance’s newest northern member. This Multi-Corps Land Component Command (MCLCC) will oversee command and control of NATO forces and coordinate national land forces in the northern region. With an initial staff of 10, expanding to 50, including personnel from various nations, the center reinforces NATO’s eastern flank and supports planning and combined training exercises. This facility, situated near the Russian border, is part of NATO’s response to the war in Ukraine and Finland’s expectation of a Russian military buildup.
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In response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, European countries bordering Russia are bolstering their defenses, including initiatives to fortify eastern borders. Finland is exploring the use of peatlands, which are naturally impenetrable to tanks, as a defense strategy, alongside Poland’s efforts to restore wetlands near its border. This approach is seen as a way to utilize “nature as an ally” by slowing down troop movements. However, such restoration efforts require careful planning and may involve complex considerations, such as balancing environmental benefits with potential damage and private land ownership.
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Finland’s Defence Forces are set to reintroduce anti-personnel mines as early as January, following the country’s withdrawal from the Ottawa Anti-Personnel Landmines Convention. This move is part of a broader defence reform plan, which includes developing rapid mine deployment capabilities and exploring the acquisition of advanced mine technologies. Alongside this, Finland is significantly modernizing its army by integrating unmanned systems, upgrading soldier equipment, and extending the service life and capabilities of existing artillery. This response is partly influenced by lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, with an emphasis on acquiring new infantry fighting vehicles to replace older models.
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European security services are closely monitoring the cargo ship HAV Dolphin, currently en route to Vaasa, Finland, due to suspicions of its involvement in supporting Russian surveillance activities. The ship, flagged in Antigua and Barbuda, previously made an unusually long stop near a German naval base, coinciding with drone sightings. Although inspections by German and Dutch police yielded no definitive evidence, the vessel’s slow travel and Russian crew have fueled concerns. The ship’s captain declined to comment on the suspicions, while the owner denies any wrongdoing and the steel importer claimed they were unaware of the vessel.
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John Q. Hosedrinker