The Federal Reserve is poised to make its first interest rate decision since the recent geopolitical tensions, specifically the escalation involving Iran, began to send ripples through global oil prices. This upcoming decision carries a particular weight because it occurs against a backdrop of renewed concerns about inflation, which, as we know, has been a persistent challenge. The conflict, characterized by its evolving nature and complex interpretations of its immediate impact, is now exerting upward pressure on inflation within the United States, making the Fed’s deliberations all the more crucial.
Considering the current economic climate, which includes inflation hovering above the 3% mark, a drastic cut in interest rates would indeed seem like an incredibly bold, if not frankly insane, move.… Continue reading
Economic growth significantly decelerated in the final quarter of 2025, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rising at a mere 0.7% annual rate, a downward revision from previous estimates and a sharp decline from the prior period. This slowdown was exacerbated by a substantial decrease in government spending due to a prolonged shutdown. Concurrently, the start of 2026 saw core inflation accelerate, with the personal consumption expenditures price index for January indicating price increases at a 2.8% annual rate, remaining a concern for the Federal Reserve. Revisions to consumer and government spending, alongside adjustments in exports, contributed to the weaker GDP performance for the quarter and the full year.
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A federal judge has blocked subpoenas served to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, citing that the Justice Department’s efforts to obtain evidence were a pretext for political pressure. The judge found no evidence of criminal wrongdoing by Powell and concluded the subpoenas were issued for an improper purpose, stating that such actions were an attempt to influence interest rate decisions or force resignation. This ruling comes amid ongoing criticism from the administration regarding the Fed’s interest rate policies and follows previous unsuccessful attempts by the U.S. Attorney’s office to pursue high-profile cases. Despite the judge’s decision, the Justice Department intends to appeal, asserting that no one is above the law.
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The recent decision by a federal judge to quash subpoenas issued against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a significant development, and it’s been met with a range of reactions, some quite impassioned. At its core, the ruling reinforces a fundamental principle of legal process: that legal proceedings must have a solid basis and not be initiated simply on a fishing expedition. The judge’s action suggests a commitment to upholding established legal standards, which is crucial for maintaining the integrity of the justice system.
What’s particularly noteworthy is the contrast drawn between the judge’s adherence to legal precedent and what some perceive as a less rigorous approach to prosecution.… Continue reading
US stocks experienced a decline, with major indexes poised for weekly losses, as disappointing jobs data exacerbated market anxieties. Oil prices continued their ascent, fueled by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns of inflation. The weak jobs report, showing a loss of 92,000 jobs and an increased unemployment rate, complicated the economic outlook, leaving the Federal Reserve in a difficult position regarding potential interest rate adjustments amidst rising energy costs and inflation risks.
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Concerns surrounding a prolonged war with Iran have significantly impacted global markets. Stocks experienced a sharp decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down by 785 points. Simultaneously, oil prices surged to their highest levels since mid-2024, with US crude jumping 8.5% as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for 20% of global oil, saw zero tanker traffic. This escalation in energy prices threatens to fuel inflation and complicates the outlook for the Federal Reserve.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren has urged the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve to confirm they will not use taxpayer funds to bail out cryptocurrency investors, particularly amidst a significant decline in Bitcoin’s value. The Massachusetts Democrat expressed concern that such a bailout would be unpopular and could potentially enrich President Trump and his family’s cryptocurrency company. Warren highlighted a recent exchange where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s response regarding taxpayer money being deployed into crypto assets was unclear, leading to uncertainty about any government intervention plans.
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A recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has shed light on a truth many suspected all along: Americans are shouldering the vast majority of the costs associated with former President Trump’s tariffs. It turns out that approximately 90% of these tariffs are ultimately paid for by consumers here in the United States. This is a revelation that, while perhaps shocking to some, aligns precisely with how economists have long understood the mechanics of tariffs. When a country imposes taxes on imported goods, those costs don’t simply vanish into thin air. Instead, they are typically passed on down the line, from the importer to the retailer, and ultimately to the end consumer.… Continue reading
S&P 500 futures indicate a positive opening following yesterday’s flat close, driven by strong U.S. jobs report figures that saw unemployment fall. This has led many analysts to believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates further, with some even suggesting a potential rate hike due to a tightening labor market. However, dissenting opinions highlight concerns that recent job creation numbers may be inflated, pointing to downward revisions of previous data and a heavy reliance on the healthcare sector for job growth. These analysts suggest the labor market remains fragile, and expect the Federal Open Market Committee to ease policy later in the year.
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The appointment of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve coincided with the release of documents linking him to the Jeffrey Epstein files. Warsh’s history includes a cautious stance on inflation, though he has indicated openness to lower rates. His wife’s family connections, including her billionaire heiress status, place him within the same affluent circles as Epstein. This situation is further complicated by Warsh’s ties to Ronald Lauder, who reportedly influenced Trump’s interest in Greenland.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker