The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has criticized the recent government shutdown and revealed a $1.8 trillion federal deficit for the fiscal year 2025. CRFB President Maya MacGuineas expressed concern, noting that the national debt is unsustainable and recommending extending spending caps and enforcing fiscal rules. Furthermore, the CRFB highlighted the urgent need to address the insolvency of Medicare and Social Security, and proposed establishing a fiscal commission to reduce deficits. The analysis emphasizes the need for bipartisan cooperation to enact sustainable fiscal policies, as echoed by financial figures such as Ray Dalio, who cautions against relying on debt-fueled growth.
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CBO: Republican megabill to cost $4.1T, due to higher borrowing costs. That’s a hefty price tag, isn’t it? The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, has crunched the numbers on a Republican megabill, and the projected cost is a staggering $4.1 trillion. And the main culprit? Increased borrowing costs. It seems like the measure’s financial impact is going to be felt across the board.
The measure is also expected to add trillions to the federal deficit. This is where things get really concerning. Not only is this bill going to cost a fortune, but it’s also predicted to significantly increase the federal deficit.… Continue reading
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Moody’s downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing escalating debt and repeated failures to address it across administrations. This makes the U.S. the first to lack a top-tier rating from all three major agencies in over a century, following similar downgrades by S&P and Fitch. Moody’s projects a growing federal deficit, reaching nearly 9 percent of GDP by 2035, fueled by rising interest payments and entitlement costs. The agency also warned that extending the 2017 tax cuts would exacerbate the deficit, highlighting political gridlock as a significant barrier to fiscal reform.
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Despite efforts to reduce government spending, the federal deficit rose by $196 billion this fiscal year due to increased spending on defense, Homeland Security, and social safety net programs like Social Security and Medicare. The increase in spending, driven largely by rising costs of entitlement programs and defense, far outpaced the increase in tax revenue. Republicans, facing pressure to make significant spending cuts, are struggling to reconcile this with their proposed tax cuts and are considering various strategies to manage the deficit, including potential tax increases on high-income earners and accounting maneuvers. These actions could still lead to increased borrowing costs for the federal government.
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Speaking at the World Governments Summit, Elon Musk advocated for the complete elimination of entire U.S. government agencies to combat inefficiency, likening partial agency reform to leaving weed roots intact. He believes this approach, implemented as head of the new Department of Government Efficiency, could reduce the federal deficit by $1 trillion by 2026. This drastic measure, exemplified by the near-shutdown of USAID and its potential absorption into the State Department, has already begun impacting global aid. Musk contends that while complete eradication of bureaucracy is impossible, a stronger foundation for U.S. governance can be established.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood