In late 2024, French special forces conducted Exercise Persée, simulating a Belarusian attack on Ukraine. The extensive drills, involving over 3,000 commandos and diverse technological assets including satellites, drones, and cyber warfare capabilities, mirrored the terrain near Kyiv. The exercise aimed to refine tactical responses to a potential conflict and included testing a mixed fleet of drones, highlighting a potential gap in French military technology. President Macron’s recent discussions with UK Prime Minister Starmer likely included a briefing on these maneuvers and the possibility of European deployment to Ukraine.
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President Zelenskyy, during a recent Warsaw visit, asserted that a swift end to the Russo-Ukrainian war hinges on a significantly more assertive European stance against Russia, including tripled pragmatism and increased arms production. He highlighted Europe’s vulnerability without Ukraine’s defense, emphasizing Russia’s superior military capabilities and brutality. Zelenskyy believes that a united Europe, coupled with US and Chinese pressure, is necessary to deter further Russian aggression. He reiterated previous statements about a potential 2025 resolution, contingent upon robust security guarantees for Ukraine.
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Poland’s Defence Minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, supports Donald Trump’s call for NATO members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, viewing it as a necessary wake-up call for Europe. Poland, already a top spender at 4.12% of GDP in 2024, aims to reach 4.7% this year and advocates for a significant increase in EU defence spending. This stance reflects Poland’s leading role in bolstering European security, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine, and its commitment to strengthening NATO’s collective defence. Kosiniak-Kamysz highlights Poland’s substantial military investment and its active support for Ukraine as evidence of its commitment to this goal.
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Poland assumed the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, succeeding Hungary, with a focus on strengthening European security across multiple dimensions—external, internal, and economic. This presidency, occurring amidst the Ukrainian war and border tensions, will involve numerous meetings and cultural events. The Polish presidency contrasts sharply with its predecessor’s controversial stance on Russia, and it comes at a pivotal moment in Poland’s domestic politics ahead of national elections. Prime Minister Tusk emphasized Poland’s commitment to European collaboration and addressing inherited challenges.
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Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba asserts that Russia lacks the capacity for multiple wars, but possesses the resources for one at a time, implying that a Ukrainian defeat would endanger Europe. He emphasizes NATO membership as crucial to preventing future conflict, rejecting alternative security guarantees as insufficient. Kuleba highlights the need for pressure on Russia to negotiate in good faith, while stating that President Zelenskyy will not accept territorial concessions. Despite President-elect Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire, Kuleba underscores that lasting peace hinges on Moscow’s actions.
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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Russia, under Vladimir Putin, aims to subjugate Ukraine and potentially other European nations, urging a “wartime mindset” and increased defense spending. He highlighted Russia’s escalating aggression, including drone warfare, cyberattacks, and the weaponization of migration, as evidence of a long-term campaign to destabilize Europe. Rutte stressed the need for significantly higher defense budgets than the current NATO target of 2% of GDP, emphasizing that a swift, unfavorable peace agreement with Ukraine would embolden Putin. He further underscored that Europe is unprepared for the escalating threats and needs immediate action to bolster defenses.
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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte declared the alliance unprepared for future Russian threats, urging a “wartime mindset” and significantly increased defense spending beyond the current 2% GDP target. He stressed that Russia is preparing for long-term conflict, and current security is the worst in his lifetime. Rutte called for increased defense production, removal of inter-member barriers to bolster defense capabilities, and acknowledged the need to address threats from China’s growing military power. He emphasized the urgent need for increased spending and innovation within the defense industry.
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At the Lord Mayor’s Banquet, Prime Minister Starmer reaffirmed the U.K.’s commitment to supporting Ukraine’s self-defense until a just and lasting peace is achieved on Ukraine’s terms. He stressed the importance of bolstering Ukraine’s negotiating position to ensure its security and independence, highlighting the escalating threats to European security should Russia prevail. The U.K.’s continued support includes significant military and financial aid, totaling £12.8 billion since the war began. This commitment underscores the U.K.’s belief that investing in Ukraine’s security is crucial for Euro-Atlantic security.
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In a Kyiv interview, Major General Christian Freuding revealed Germany’s assessment that Russia plans to bolster its military capabilities by 2029, posing a potential threat to NATO, including Germany’s eastern neighbors. Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine highlights this threat, which Freuding emphasized as the greatest to Europe. Germany is responding by supplying additional military aid, including two more IRIS-T air defense systems for Ukraine by the end of 2024, and anticipates further high-level discussions regarding Ukraine’s defense in December. This underscores Germany’s commitment to supporting Ukraine and countering the escalating Russian threat.
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With Donald Trump set to resume the presidency in 2025, Poland is seeking to solidify an alliance with the United Kingdom to continue supporting Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has expressed concern about the potential for a negotiated end to the war that could involve Ukrainian concessions to Russia, particularly in light of Trump’s past statements advocating for a quick resolution. Tusk emphasizes that decisions about Ukraine’s future must involve Ukrainians themselves and has been actively pushing back against Trump’s perceived approach. Meanwhile, France and the UK are attempting to secure U.S. approval for Ukraine to launch deeper strikes into Russia before Trump’s return to office, recognizing the potential shift in U.S. policy.
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John Q. Hosedrinker