Contrary to a Ukrainian intelligence warning, Russia did not launch an RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile on May 18-19. The absence of any publicly available video footage of the launch, despite its likely visibility across a vast Siberian area, suggests the launch did not occur. While the reason remains unknown, this follows two previous failed Yars launches in 2023 and the inherent risk of failure in even advanced missile systems. Defense Express speculates that potential launch complications or a desire to avoid showcasing the inefficiency of Russia’s nuclear deterrent may have influenced the decision.
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In a televised address, President Macron declared Russia a long-term threat to Europe, prompting discussions on bolstering European defense capabilities independent of the U.S. He proposed a European peacekeeping force for Ukraine post-conflict and, significantly, initiated a discussion with allies regarding the potential sharing of France’s nuclear deterrent to safeguard the continent. This follows Macron’s phone calls with Zelenskyy and Trump, and comes ahead of a crucial EU summit in Brussels to address Ukrainian support and European security. Macron emphasized that peace in Ukraine cannot be achieved at any cost, requiring strong safeguards against further Russian aggression.
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In response to Russia’s threats and potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO, French President Macron has proposed discussions on a European nuclear deterrent. This follows a request from likely German Chancellor Merz for “nuclear sharing,” highlighting Europe’s growing concern over its reliance on U.S. protection. France, possessing one of only two European nuclear arsenals, offers its deterrent as a solution, though Germany’s participation and funding remain crucial. Experts suggest that bolstering Europe’s energy independence is equally vital to strengthening its defense posture.
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In a significant policy shift, German politician Friedrich Merz proposed exploring nuclear security cooperation with Britain and France, marking a departure from Germany’s traditional reluctance towards closer European military integration. This proposal reflects growing concerns in Germany over the deteriorating U.S.-Europe relationship following Trump’s reelection. The recent hostile rhetoric from the U.S. administration, including threats of troop withdrawal, has spurred this reevaluation of European security arrangements. This move comes as European leaders prepare to meet with President Trump to address his increasingly pro-Russia stance and potential abandonment of commitments to Europe and Ukraine.
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John Q. Hosedrinker