The US’s purported refusal to provide air defense support for a European-led peacekeeping force in postwar Ukraine is a significant development, one that’s sparking a whirlwind of reactions and raising serious questions about the future of transatlantic security. The initial shock, it seems, has subsided, replaced by a growing sense of European resolve to forge its own path toward defense autonomy. This decision, if true, marks a dramatic shift in the established security architecture, forcing Europe to confront a stark reality: relying on the US for protection might no longer be a viable option.
This necessitates a reevaluation of Europe’s defensive capabilities.… Continue reading
In a recent interview, US Vice President JD Vance urged European nations to exhibit greater independence from the United States, critiquing their historical role as “vassals.” He specifically cited the Iraq War, suggesting stronger European opposition could have prevented the conflict’s negative consequences. While acknowledging some European nations correctly opposed the war, Vance believes a more robust, unified stance would have been beneficial. This call for greater European autonomy follows previous criticisms of European defense spending and immigration policies.
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Facing potential US withdrawal from NATO, major European powers are developing plans for increased defense responsibility. These discussions, involving the UK, France, Germany, and Nordic countries, aim for a managed transfer of US roles over 5-10 years, to be presented to the US before the June NATO summit. The plan includes significantly boosting European defense spending and capabilities, focusing on areas like air defense and logistics, to eventually replace most US military contributions. However, some officials remain uncertain about the likelihood of actual US withdrawal.
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Following a summit hosted by Starmer, European leaders pledged increased defense spending, echoing a similar statement from NATO chief Rutte. This commitment, spurred by a perceived unreliability of U.S. leadership after a strained Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, aims to bolster a joint UK, France, and Ukraine peace plan for presentation to the U.S. The summit emphasized the need for Europe to take a more proactive role in its own security. The absence of U.S. representation underscored Europe’s growing autonomy.
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Amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics and uncertain U.S. commitments, French President Macron urged Europe to prioritize its own strength and independence, rejecting passive reliance on the United States. He emphasized the need for greater European unity and decisive action in technological, industrial, and defense sectors to counter “happy vassalage.” This call follows Macron’s unsuccessful attempt to secure U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine and coincides with a joint UK-France initiative to deploy European peacekeepers there. Macron’s assertion of European autonomy, however, is not a novel position.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker