The Trump administration is reportedly pressuring Kyiv to cede unoccupied areas of Donbas to Russia in exchange for U.S. security guarantees, according to sources familiar with the ongoing talks. Washington has indicated that security guarantees are contingent upon a peace deal with Russia, likely involving territorial concessions. However, Ukrainian officials have expressed concerns, viewing this as an attempt to force concessions Moscow may not reciprocate. While the U.S. has offered additional weapons as an incentive, upcoming talks on February 1st are expected to center on contentious issues such as Russian demands for withdrawal and control of key locations.
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President Zelensky expressed optimism regarding the potential end of the war in Ukraine, suggesting it could conclude in the first half of 2026. This projection coincides with Cyprus’s EU presidency, during which negotiations with European partners and the United States have reached a new stage, emphasizing the EU’s central role in the process. Recent talks in Paris and the “Coalition of the Willing” summit signal progress, with a deal reportedly “90% ready,” potentially involving security guarantees including a U.S.-backed, European-led force and ceasefire monitoring. These developments suggest a concerted effort to bring the nearly four-year full-scale invasion to an end.
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On January 6, Western allies, including France and the UK, formalized long-term security guarantees for Ukraine by signing a declaration to establish a “Multinational Force for Ukraine” after the war ends. This force will secure Ukraine’s skies and seas, support the rebuilding of its armed forces, and provide logistical support, including military hubs across the country. The agreement paves the way for a legal framework enabling French and UK forces to operate on Ukrainian soil, along with long-term security guarantees and continued military and humanitarian aid. Both leaders also committed to maintaining pressure on Russia through further sanctions and supporting Ukraine’s future prosperity and defense.
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The United States has offered Ukraine security guarantees for 15 years as part of a proposed peace plan, though Ukraine would prefer a longer commitment. Negotiations, led by the U.S. and Russia, continue to search for a breakthrough on key issues such as troop withdrawal. The talks come as Russia claims its forces are advancing and also reports an attack on Putin’s residence. A national referendum to approve the 20-point peace plan is under discussion, though it requires a ceasefire.
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During an online briefing after returning from Europe, President Zelenskyy stated that the United States and Europe would persist in supporting Ukraine if Russia prolongs its war efforts. He emphasized the necessity of ending the conflict through diplomatic means and pressuring Russia, highlighting the unified stance shared with the Americans. Zelenskyy also noted the importance of robust security guarantees, including bilateral agreements with the U.S. and European partners, to be ratified by their respective parliaments, aiming to avoid the ineffectiveness of past agreements. Zelenskyy also mentioned that the 20-point plan should be endorsed by a referendum.
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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz indicated that Western troops deployed in Ukraine as part of post-ceasefire security guarantees could retaliate against future Russian attacks, suggesting a commitment to defend Ukraine akin to NATO’s Article 5. This follows signals that the U.S. and European allies are willing to offer NATO-like security guarantees to Kyiv within a proposed peace agreement. A multinational force, backed by the U.S. and led by European countries, would be deployed to bolster Ukraine’s military and secure its borders. While progress has been made, particularly on security guarantees, a consensus on territorial issues remains elusive given Moscow’s current demands.
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The United States has agreed to provide Ukraine with unspecified security guarantees as part of a peace deal to end the war with Russia, according to officials. Talks with envoys led to narrowing differences on security guarantees and Moscow’s demand for land concessions in the Donbas region. The U.S. is planning to present the agreement for Senate approval, with discussions set to continue, potentially in Miami. European leaders and the U.S. have committed to joint efforts in providing robust security guarantees, including a multinational force.
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If Ukraine’s NATO aspirations are off the table, the EU must provide robust security guarantees, according to High Representative Kaja Kallas. Kallas highlighted Russia’s history of aggression, emphasizing the need for Ukraine to receive assurances given its vulnerability. She stressed that Russia, having not been attacked by any of the nations it has invaded, does not need security guarantees. This emphasizes the urgent need for comprehensive security support for Ukraine.
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John Q. Hosedrinker