Since Donald Trump’s return to office, the United States has not implemented new sanctions against Russia, allowing it to continue acquiring crucial microchips and military components. The administration even lifted some restrictions and disbanded the KleptoCapture task force, potentially hindering efforts to target assets linked to the Kremlin. Numerous companies in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore are openly advertising banned components for sale to Russia, including those used in weapons systems. Experts caution that the absence of updated sanctions allows these import schemes to flourish, as US interest in deterring Russian aggression appears to be diminishing.
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In a recent interview, Senator Lindsey Graham announced that former President Trump supports a new sanctions bill targeting Russia’s energy trade. The legislation proposes a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian energy, aiming to curb funding for the war in Ukraine. Graham specifically noted China and India, major buyers of Russian oil, as targets. The bill, postponed previously, is expected to be voted on after the July recess and is designed to pressure Russia into peace negotiations.
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In 2024, Ukraine’s trade with Germany reached €840 million, exceeding that of Russia (€770 million) for the first time since 1992. This surge is driven by strong performance in sectors like agriculture, metals, and machinery, replacing Russia’s dominance in energy and commodities. Significant German investment in Ukrainian reconstruction efforts further fuels this economic shift, reflecting a strategic partnership focused on manufacturing and technology. The surpassing of Russia underscores Ukraine’s deepening integration into Western markets and Germany’s reduced reliance on Russia.
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Canada pledged $4.3 billion in aid to Ukraine, allocating $2 billion for military supplies (contributing to NATO commitments) and $2.3 billion as a loan for infrastructure reconstruction, repayable through interest on frozen Russian assets. Simultaneously, Canada imposed new sanctions on 77 individuals, 39 entities, and 201 vessels involved in Russia’s “shadow fleet.” This support follows similar UK actions, demonstrating a coordinated Western response to bolster Ukraine’s defense and pressure Russia. Zelenskyy expressed gratitude for the timely assistance.
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Ultimately, the strength and speed of sanctions against Russia hinge on President Trump’s actions. Despite a past tense Oval Office disagreement, constructive dialogue has resumed between the U.S. and Ukraine, including a positive meeting at the Vatican. However, Trump’s recent comments, including comparing the conflict to “squabbling children” and vaguely referencing a sanctions deadline, indicate fluctuating opinions influenced by his conversations with both Putin and Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy himself expressed uncertainty regarding the consistency of Trump’s stance.
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A Follow the Money investigation reveals that Western companies paid Russia at least €40 billion in taxes over the past three years, a sum nearing one-third of Russia’s 2025 defense budget. This significant revenue stream, primarily from G7 and EU firms, directly supports Russia’s war effort despite Western sanctions and military aid to Ukraine. Many companies, citing various justifications, remain in Russia, despite challenges to exiting the market, including low asset sale prices and potential asset seizures. While Russia’s rhetoric suggests punitive measures against these companies, the Kremlin also indicates plans for their eventual return.
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The European Union announced its 18th sanctions package against Russia, targeting its oil and gas revenue streams to further cripple its war effort in Ukraine. This package lowers the price cap on Russian oil exports to $45 per barrel and bans transactions with sanctioned Russian banks and financial institutions in third countries aiding sanctions evasion. The EU also proposes a ban on utilizing Russian energy infrastructure, specifically the Nord Stream pipelines. Despite potential opposition from member states, the sanctions aim to pressure Russia into peace negotiations, as its continued aggression demonstrates a lack of interest in diplomatic resolutions.
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The EU announced a new, robust sanctions package against Russia, further impacting its already strained economy. This action, deemed necessary due to Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine, aims to increase pressure for an end to the war. The sanctions, including a reduced oil price cap, were coordinated with the US and will be finalized before the end of the month. The package is expected to be swiftly adopted by EU member states ahead of a G7 summit, where the oil price cap will be further discussed.
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President Zelenskyy asserts that a Russian cessation of hostilities is imminent, contingent upon the United States enacting stringent sanctions against Russia. He emphasizes the need for strong US support, coupled with European unity, to pressure Putin into ending the war. Zelenskyy believes the US possesses the necessary leverage to achieve this, urging President Trump to utilize economic sanctions, arms packages, and diplomatic pressure to halt the conflict. Ukraine fully supports all US-initiated peace proposals.
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Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo expressed concern over a weakened US Russia sanctions bill, urging its swift and complete passage to pressure Vladimir Putin into negotiations. Reports indicate President Trump is influencing the Senate to soften the legislation, which could impose a 500% tariff on countries continuing to import Russian resources. Orpo plans to discuss this at the upcoming NATO summit, emphasizing the need for immediate action. The bill, spearheaded by Senators Graham and Blumenthal, is currently subject to negotiations with the White House.
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John Q. Hosedrinker