Hungary intends to host Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump within the next couple of weeks, despite the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing an arrest warrant for Putin. Although Hungary has announced its withdrawal from the ICC, it is still legally obligated to cooperate with the court’s decisions until mid-next year, alongside the other 124 member states. The ICC emphasizes that member states are bound by law, regardless of their agreement with ICC rulings. Putin has limited foreign travel since the pandemic and the Ukraine invasion, particularly after the arrest warrant was issued.
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Following a phone call, President Trump announced plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Hungary to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, with high-level advisors meeting the following week led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Trump and Putin also discussed future trade, while a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky was scheduled to follow. This comes after growing frustration over the war’s slow progress and a recent massive Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, which Ukraine’s ambassador says demonstrates Russia’s lack of interest in ending the war.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted that Ukraine’s path to EU membership would continue irrespective of opposition from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán has been a consistent opponent of Ukraine’s membership, raising concerns about alleged discriminatory policies and potential war involvement. Zelenskyy emphasized that EU membership is the choice of the Ukrainian people and hinted at procedural workarounds to bypass Hungary’s veto. In response, Orbán accused Zelenskyy of attempting to dictate to Hungarians and employing “moral blackmail” in order to push Ukraine’s membership.
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In response to Ukraine’s ban on several Hungarian media outlets, the Hungarian government has prohibited access to a selection of Ukrainian news websites, including Ukrainska Pravda and European Pravda. According to Minister Gergely Gulyás, this decision is based on the principle of reciprocity, following Ukraine’s actions against Hungarian media, which were accused of disseminating Russian propaganda. Gulyás stated that Ukraine’s actions were prompted by critical reporting on sanctions against Russia and military support for Ukraine, as well as the depiction of the EU and NATO. This decision mirrors Russia’s prior bans on Hungarian media, raising questions about press freedom and political tensions in the region.
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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stirred controversy by stating Ukraine is not a sovereign nation, responding to allegations of Hungarian drone airspace violations. While acknowledging potential drone incursions, Orban dismissed Ukraine’s sovereignty, citing its territorial losses during the ongoing war with Russia. This stance drew sharp criticism, with Ukrainian officials accusing Orban of being influenced by Russian propaganda. Orban’s position aligns with his history of Kremlin-friendly policies, including blocking sanctions and aid to Ukraine, and opposing its EU accession.
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Ukraine has dismissed suggestions from Hungarian officials regarding territorial concessions for the sake of peace. According to a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Ukraine does not require advice on relinquishing territory or sovereignty. This response came after Hungary’s Deputy Foreign Minister alluded to Hungary’s historical territorial losses and seemingly implied Ukraine should cede a portion of its land. The Ukrainian spokesperson firmly stated that Ukraine would not consider such actions.
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During a meeting of the Staff of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, President Zelenskyy instructed the military to fully investigate the appearance of reconnaissance drones along the Ukraine-Hungary border. The Ukrainian military reported spotting these drones, prompting an investigation. If such incidents reoccur, the military is instructed to respond in defense of the state. This follows earlier reports and a briefing by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine regarding the potential incursions.
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The European Commission is planning to leverage EU Council conclusions from December 2023 to justify using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. This would involve a shift in sanctions rules, moving from unanimity to a qualified majority vote, with the aim of utilizing the interest accrued on these assets. The proposal will need widespread support from member states, facing potential opposition from countries like Hungary and Slovakia. Furthermore, concerns from Belgium regarding legal repercussions from Russia and exposure of Euroclear could pose a challenge.
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To prevent Hungary from obstructing Russia-related sanctions, the EU is considering altering its sanctions extension process. The European Commission proposes a shift from unanimous voting to a qualified majority when renewing sanctions, which currently require unanimous approval every six months. This initiative is linked to a planned loan to Ukraine financed by frozen Russian assets. This change aims to bypass potential Hungarian vetoes, ensuring the continued enforcement of sanctions against Russia and preventing Moscow from regaining access to frozen funds.
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Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has accused President Zelenskyy of an “anti-Hungarian obsession” amid escalating tensions. This response follows a period of worsening relations between the two countries, fueled by Budapest’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession and recent actions, including the bombing of the Druzhba oil pipeline. In response to entry bans imposed by Hungary on a Ukrainian commander, Ukraine reciprocated with bans on Hungarian military officials. Szijjártó further claimed that Ukraine has pursued an “anti-Hungarian policy” for a decade.
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John Q. Hosedrinker