Recent data reveals a significant cooling in the US labor market, with businesses hiring at their slowest pace in 15 years, excluding the initial pandemic period. The hires rate dropped to 3.1% at the end of February, the lowest since April 2020, and a steeper decline than seen outside the pandemic since 2016. This slowdown, coupled with a dip in job openings and a decrease in voluntary quits, suggests a near halt in the “churn” necessary for a healthy economy, even before the Middle East conflict’s potential impacts. Concerns are amplified by the conflict’s effects on input costs, potentially forcing companies to consider price hikes or workforce reductions.
Read More
A longtime economist has highlighted the Walmart Recession Signal (WRS), which compares Walmart’s stock performance against luxury stocks, as a potential indicator of economic trouble. The WRS, currently at its highest point since the Global Financial Crisis, suggests a growing risk of a significant economic slowdown. This signal is based on the principle that consumers facing economic hardship tend to shift spending from luxury goods to budget retailers like Walmart. The WRS’s recent increase is attributed to economic anxiety and could signal growing pressure on lower- and middle-income households, potential issues in private credit markets, and a future rise in unemployment.
Read More
The Jobs Report Is Canceled. Here’s What Private Data Shows.
With the official jobs report sidelined due to the government shutdown, the focus shifts to private sector data, and the picture it paints isn’t exactly rosy. While the labor market hasn’t cratered, the available information suggests a modest weakening since the summer. It appears we’re in a bit of a holding pattern – not a sharp decline, but certainly not a surge of growth. The situation reminds me of treading water; we’re staying afloat, but not exactly making progress.
The data sources offer a mixed bag. Some reports suggest a slight decline in private-sector employment, while others show a modest rebound.… Continue reading
Recent reports indicate a slowdown in Russia’s defense sector after three years of robust growth fueled by the war in Ukraine. Data from the Russian national statistics agency, Rosstat, reveals stagnation or declines in military-linked companies in September, a shift from the double-digit growth seen in previous years. Key manufacturing areas like fabricated metal products and transport equipment experienced a significant decline or slowed growth, dragging down the broader manufacturing index. Consequently, the Central Bank has cut interest rates to combat economic stagnation, simultaneously revising its inflation outlook upward and lowering its economic growth forecast for next year.
Read More
New government data indicates that U.S. job growth has nearly stalled, raising concerns about the economy’s direction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 22,000 jobs added in August, significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This slowdown is occurring despite the stock market’s positive performance, largely due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The economic uncertainty stems from policies such as tariffs on imports, which have also contributed to ongoing inflation.
Read More
In August, U.S. private sector hiring saw a smaller-than-expected increase, with only 54,000 jobs added, a significant drop from the previous month. This slowdown was attributed to factors such as consumer worries, labor shortages, and AI-related disruptions, particularly impacting trade, transportation, utilities, and education/health services. The leisure and hospitality industry showed gains, but overall, the ADP report contributes to an already concerning labor market picture, further evidenced by rising jobless claims and a decline in job openings. Consequently, market observers are now more convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its upcoming meeting.
Read More
July’s nonfarm payroll growth significantly underperformed expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, a stark contrast to the anticipated 100,000. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, while June and May’s job growth figures were sharply revised downwards, indicating a weakening labor market. The report prompted a market reaction, with stock futures and Treasury yields falling, leading economists to suggest potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September. Job gains were largely concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while other sectors experienced declines or minimal growth.
Read More
Unemployment benefit claims increased to an eight-month high of 247,000 last week, exceeding analysts’ predictions and raising concerns about the economy’s future. This rise, though still historically low, follows a trend of decreased consumer and business confidence, potentially linked to ongoing tariff uncertainty. The job market shows signs of cooling, with fewer job openings and a decrease in employee resignations, suggesting a slowdown in the previously robust hiring environment. Analysts anticipate modest job growth in May’s official employment report, further indicating a potential economic shift.
Read More
US private payrolls saw their smallest increase in over two years during May, adding only 37,000 jobs. This is significantly lower than the 110,000 jobs economists predicted and represents a considerable drop from the revised 60,000 jobs added in April. This sluggish growth signifies a worrying trend, especially considering the previous months’ figures and the general economic climate.
The weak job growth is particularly concerning given the context of broader economic uncertainty. Many believe this slow pace is not a true reflection of the overall labor market’s health but rather a symptom of deeper underlying issues. The economic headwinds are likely exacerbating pre-existing challenges within the job market, leading to this subdued growth.… Continue reading
Microsoft has cancelled its $1 billion data center project in Licking County, Ohio, citing a global slowdown in new infrastructure spending. Despite halting construction of three planned campuses, the company will fulfill existing agreements for infrastructure improvements and continue supporting local digital skills development and community restoration initiatives. Microsoft retains ownership of the acquired land, leaving open the possibility of future development. This decision reflects a broader industry trend suggesting potential data center overcapacity.
Read More
John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood