The Jobs Report Is Canceled. Here’s What Private Data Shows.
With the official jobs report sidelined due to the government shutdown, the focus shifts to private sector data, and the picture it paints isn’t exactly rosy. While the labor market hasn’t cratered, the available information suggests a modest weakening since the summer. It appears we’re in a bit of a holding pattern – not a sharp decline, but certainly not a surge of growth. The situation reminds me of treading water; we’re staying afloat, but not exactly making progress.
The data sources offer a mixed bag. Some reports suggest a slight decline in private-sector employment, while others show a modest rebound.… Continue reading
Recent reports indicate a slowdown in Russia’s defense sector after three years of robust growth fueled by the war in Ukraine. Data from the Russian national statistics agency, Rosstat, reveals stagnation or declines in military-linked companies in September, a shift from the double-digit growth seen in previous years. Key manufacturing areas like fabricated metal products and transport equipment experienced a significant decline or slowed growth, dragging down the broader manufacturing index. Consequently, the Central Bank has cut interest rates to combat economic stagnation, simultaneously revising its inflation outlook upward and lowering its economic growth forecast for next year.
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New government data indicates that U.S. job growth has nearly stalled, raising concerns about the economy’s direction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported only 22,000 jobs added in August, significantly below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This slowdown is occurring despite the stock market’s positive performance, largely due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The economic uncertainty stems from policies such as tariffs on imports, which have also contributed to ongoing inflation.
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In August, U.S. private sector hiring saw a smaller-than-expected increase, with only 54,000 jobs added, a significant drop from the previous month. This slowdown was attributed to factors such as consumer worries, labor shortages, and AI-related disruptions, particularly impacting trade, transportation, utilities, and education/health services. The leisure and hospitality industry showed gains, but overall, the ADP report contributes to an already concerning labor market picture, further evidenced by rising jobless claims and a decline in job openings. Consequently, market observers are now more convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its upcoming meeting.
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July’s nonfarm payroll growth significantly underperformed expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, a stark contrast to the anticipated 100,000. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, while June and May’s job growth figures were sharply revised downwards, indicating a weakening labor market. The report prompted a market reaction, with stock futures and Treasury yields falling, leading economists to suggest potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in September. Job gains were largely concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while other sectors experienced declines or minimal growth.
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Unemployment benefit claims increased to an eight-month high of 247,000 last week, exceeding analysts’ predictions and raising concerns about the economy’s future. This rise, though still historically low, follows a trend of decreased consumer and business confidence, potentially linked to ongoing tariff uncertainty. The job market shows signs of cooling, with fewer job openings and a decrease in employee resignations, suggesting a slowdown in the previously robust hiring environment. Analysts anticipate modest job growth in May’s official employment report, further indicating a potential economic shift.
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US private payrolls saw their smallest increase in over two years during May, adding only 37,000 jobs. This is significantly lower than the 110,000 jobs economists predicted and represents a considerable drop from the revised 60,000 jobs added in April. This sluggish growth signifies a worrying trend, especially considering the previous months’ figures and the general economic climate.
The weak job growth is particularly concerning given the context of broader economic uncertainty. Many believe this slow pace is not a true reflection of the overall labor market’s health but rather a symptom of deeper underlying issues. The economic headwinds are likely exacerbating pre-existing challenges within the job market, leading to this subdued growth.… Continue reading
Microsoft has cancelled its $1 billion data center project in Licking County, Ohio, citing a global slowdown in new infrastructure spending. Despite halting construction of three planned campuses, the company will fulfill existing agreements for infrastructure improvements and continue supporting local digital skills development and community restoration initiatives. Microsoft retains ownership of the acquired land, leaving open the possibility of future development. This decision reflects a broader industry trend suggesting potential data center overcapacity.
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In March 2025, the consumer confidence index plummeted to 92.9, a 12-year low, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. This drop, lower than analysts’ predictions, was primarily driven by anxieties over inflation and tariffs, significantly impacting consumers’ short-term economic expectations. Major retailers, including Walmart and Target, have reported weakened sales and profit forecasts, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and echoing the declining confidence. The decreased optimism, despite some increased big-ticket item purchases possibly due to pre-tariff buying, suggests a potential economic slowdown.
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February’s private sector job growth plummeted to 77,000, significantly lower than January’s revised 186,000 and the predicted 148,000, marking the weakest increase since July. This slowdown, coupled with concerns over rising inflation from President Trump’s tariffs and weakening consumer spending, fuels anxieties about a broader economic deceleration. While annual pay growth remained steady at 4.7%, the hiring slump suggests employers are hesitant due to prevailing economic uncertainty. This weak jobs report follows negative sentiment indicators, raising the specter of stagflation.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker