JPMorgan Chase has raised its global recession probability to 60%, citing the Trump administration’s new tariffs as a major contributing factor. This significant increase stems from a reassessment of U.S. trade policy, now deemed considerably less business-friendly than previously anticipated. The bank highlights the tariffs’ substantial impact, equating to the largest tax increase since 1968 and potentially exacerbating economic hardship through retaliatory measures and decreased business confidence. JPMorgan projects that the full implementation of these policies could trigger a U.S., and potentially global, recession in 2019.
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A New York court ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. illegally voted in New York while residing in California, a claim supported by public records and witness testimony. This action is criticized by Accountable.US, who question Kennedy’s fitness for public office given his apparent disregard for the law. The ruling adds to concerns surrounding several controversial cabinet nominees for the incoming Trump administration. Kennedy’s team has not yet responded to the allegations.
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Handelsbanken’s head of forecasting, Johan Löf, predicts that President-elect Trump’s policies will lead to increased inflation. This resurgence of inflation poses a significant economic challenge. Löf’s analysis highlights the potential negative consequences of these policies on the U.S. economy. The forecast anticipates a considerable inflationary impact stemming from Trump’s proposed economic agenda.
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John Q. Hosedrinker