The jobs report triggered a significant surge in bond prices, hinting at a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The nonfarm payrolls for July fell short of expectations, with downward revisions to May and June’s figures. The 2-year note yield plummeted, while the 10-year and 30-year Treasury note yields also declined. Further contributing to the market’s reaction, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler announced her resignation, and President Trump updated tariff rates.
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The Finnish unemployment rate increased to 10.2 percent in the second quarter of the year, marking a rise of 27,000 unemployed people compared to the same period last year. Simultaneously, the number of employed individuals decreased by 14,000, with the most significant drop observed in female-dominated sectors, specifically a decrease of 18,000 employed women. This downturn in employment was primarily offset by a rise in the construction sector. The total hours worked also fell.
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Despite initial resilience fueled by military spending and oil exports, the Russian economy is now facing a downturn. Manufacturing is contracting, consumer spending is down, and inflation remains high, straining the national budget. Experts warn that the economy’s reliance on military spending is unsustainable, and Western sanctions are increasingly taking a toll. This economic strain is reducing Russia’s ability to fund the war in Ukraine, with falling oil prices adding further risk to the situation.
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US private payrolls post first drop in more than two years is the headline, and it’s a significant one. For the first time since March 2023, we’re seeing a decrease in private employment. The ADP National Employment Report showed a drop of 33,000 jobs last month, a stark contrast to the upwardly revised increase of 29,000 in May. Economists, who had predicted a gain of 95,000 jobs, are likely rethinking their projections. This downward trend raises some serious questions about the health of the economy, and it’s a wake-up call that shouldn’t be ignored.
This reversal is happening at a time when many feel the government is taking actions that are not supportive of economic stability.… Continue reading
In a stark economic forecast, the Federal Reserve projects aggressive stagflation for the remainder of 2025, anticipating 3 percent inflation, a 1.4 percent GDP decline, and 4.5 percent unemployment. This projection follows the Trump administration’s consideration of increased aid to Israel and the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which significantly increases the national deficit. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the current economic downturn stems directly from President Trump’s tariffs. The Fed maintains its current interest rate policy despite the projected stagflation.
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US retail sales have plummeted, marking the largest drop in four months. This significant decline reflects a widespread shift in consumer behavior, driven by a confluence of factors impacting the financial well-being of many Americans. The most immediate and palpable reason is the simple lack of disposable income. With the rising costs of essential goods like food, rent, and medical care, many are finding it increasingly difficult to afford even basic necessities, let alone discretionary purchases. This financial strain is leading individuals to drastically curtail their spending, prioritizing essential expenses and delaying or foregoing non-essential items altogether.
This reduction in consumer spending is visible across various sectors.… Continue reading
Trump claims Elon Musk’s endorsement was crucial to his Pennsylvania victory and expresses disappointment over Musk’s subsequent opposition to the bill’s electric vehicle mandate cuts. Musk countered on X, prioritizing the bill’s overall size and alleged “pork” over specific provisions, asserting his concern is about national debt, not Tesla’s interests. Despite prior claims of political disengagement, Musk’s continued involvement has coincided with a significant drop in Tesla’s stock price. This suggests a correlation between Musk’s political actions and Tesla’s financial performance.
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Economists are predicting that Canada is already experiencing the early stages of a recession. This downturn is being attributed to a number of factors, with the ongoing trade war with the United States playing a significant role. The projected economic contraction for the second and third quarters indicates a technical recession, a situation defined by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
Unemployment is rising in Canada concurrently with this predicted contraction. This is a key indicator of a slowing economy, as businesses reduce their workforce in response to decreased demand and profitability. A rise in unemployment often translates to decreased consumer spending, further exacerbating the economic slowdown.… Continue reading
In response to a challenging economic climate and a projected 50% reduction in volume from its largest customer, Amazon, UPS announced a restructuring plan. This plan includes a workforce reduction of approximately 20,000 employees (4% of its total workforce) and the closure of 73 facilities. These changes, effective by June 2025, aim to enhance the company’s efficiency and cost structure. CEO Carol Tomé expressed gratitude to employees while emphasizing UPS’ commitment to navigating the evolving global logistics landscape.
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President Trump’s second term has seen a sharp decline in his economic approval ratings, with multiple polls showing significant disapproval of his handling of inflation, tariffs, and stock market volatility. A majority of respondents across various surveys believe the economy has worsened under his leadership. His inconsistent trade policies, including recently imposed and then partially suspended tariffs, have injected uncertainty into the market and raised concerns about higher prices and product shortages. This contrasts sharply with his initial success in 2020, which was fueled by economic optimism.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood