Canada’s economy experienced its first contraction in almost two years, driven by a trade war with the US, which significantly impacted exports and business investment. The country’s gross domestic product decreased at a 1.6% annualized rate during the second quarter, marking the largest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. This data was released by Statistics Canada from Ottawa. The downturn underscores the economic vulnerability caused by strained international trade relations.
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The U.S. economy experienced an unexpected contraction of 0.5% annually from January to March, according to the Commerce Department, a revision from the previously estimated 0.2% decline. This downturn was largely driven by a surge in imports as businesses and consumers rushed to purchase goods before potential tariffs were imposed, which had a significant negative impact on the GDP. Consumer spending also slowed considerably, and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index reflected growing economic pessimism. While a category measuring the economy’s underlying strength showed growth, federal government spending fell sharply, contributing to the overall economic contraction.
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March saw the U.S. goods trade deficit reach a record $163.5 billion, an 11.2% increase from February, driven by importers stockpiling goods ahead of anticipated tariffs. This surge in imports contributed to the 0.3% economic contraction in the first quarter. President Trump, citing unfair trade practices by other nations, initiated reciprocal tariffs, though some have been temporarily paused for negotiation purposes. The President anticipates announcing new trade deals within weeks.
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U.S. GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, significantly below forecasts, primarily due to businesses front-loading imports in anticipation of President Trump’s new tariffs. This surge in imports artificially lowered the growth rate, though economists caution that this effect may be temporary. Subsequently, weak job growth numbers further fueled recessionary concerns. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current interest rate as a result of these concerning economic indicators.
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John Q. Hosedrinker