Following a December 25th crash in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan’s transport minister stated that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane suffered “external interference,” resulting in both internal and external damage. Survivors reported hearing three blasts while the aircraft was over Grozny, Chechnya, leading to speculation that Russian air defenses were involved. While the Kremlin remains silent, Russia cited a “closed-skies protocol” due to Ukrainian drone attacks, and US officials have expressed early indications supporting the theory of Russian air defense involvement. Azerbaijani officials, while avoiding direct accusations, suggest the plane was struck by shrapnel from a missile, impacting its GPS and hydraulic systems.
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An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190, flight 8432, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, resulting in 38 fatalities out of 67 passengers and crew. Initial reports suggested a bird strike forced an emergency landing, but survivor accounts and investigative sources indicate a possible missile strike near Grozny, the intended destination. The plane’s erratic flight path, as shown by FlightRadar24 data, and potential GPS jamming further complicate the investigation. The nationalities of the passengers included a significant number of Azerbaijanis, as well as Russians, Kazakhs, and Kyrgyz citizens.
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Bild journalist Julian Röpcke posits that the November 21st Dnipro missile strike utilized a modified, non-explosive RS-26 Rubezh missile, citing video evidence of submunitions lacking explosions. Röpcke suggests the minimal damage supports the claim of a propaganda act rather than a military one. This contradicts some Western and Ukrainian assessments identifying the missile as a nuclear-capable ICBM, although the Kremlin confirmed the use of a different missile type. The conflicting reports highlight the difficulty in definitively identifying the weapon used.
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John Q. Hosedrinker