The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is examining oil futures trades made on March 23 by at least three previously undisclosed firms: Qube Research & Technology, Totsa, and Forza Fund Ltd. These trades, which occurred shortly before an announcement regarding Iran, reportedly resulted in significant profits for the firms. While the firms have not been accused of any wrongdoing and deny awareness of an investigation, their trading decisions are being scrutinized alongside other suspicious trades that occurred around key geopolitical announcements, prompting a broader inquiry by the Justice Department as well.
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Despite Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial ships, oil futures experienced a significant drop as the market initially interpreted this as a breakthrough. However, confusion quickly arose due to conflicting statements from Iranian officials and President Trump, suggesting the strait remains functionally closed. Tankers attempting to transit the strait via a designated route reportedly turned back, indicating that commercial vessels are still subject to specific Iranian regulations and coordination with its military, and that the U.S. naval blockade remains in effect.
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A Kuwait-flagged crude oil tanker, the Al-Salmi, was attacked and set ablaze at Dubai Port’s anchorage on Monday, prompting concerns of a potential oil spill and causing a rise in crude futures. This incident follows a pattern of drone and missile attacks on merchant vessels in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, with a Greek-owned container ship also reporting projectile strikes off the coast of Saudi Arabia earlier that day. While no injuries were reported, investigations are underway to assess the full extent of the damage to the oil tanker.
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John Q. Hosedrinker