The price of gold has surged in 2025, experiencing its highest increase since 1979, driven by factors such as interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and trade concerns. Gold reached a high of $4,426.66 per ounce, with analysts predicting two interest rate cuts in 2026, which typically leads investors to diversify into commodities like gold. Central banks are also increasing their gold holdings, further boosting demand as a hedge against economic instability, and a weaker US dollar is making the metal more accessible. Other precious metals like silver and platinum have also seen record highs, supported by industrial demand.
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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year, though the decision was not unanimous, highlighting internal division regarding the best course of action for the U.S. economy. This split within the Federal Open Market Committee underscores the economic uncertainty caused by factors like tariffs and changes in the labor force. Compounding these issues, economic data collection was hampered by the government shutdown, and the term of the current Fed chair is ending soon, leading to political pressure. The Fed is navigating the balancing act of managing potential economic downturns with inflationary pressures while facing pressure from the White House regarding interest rate decisions.
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The Federal Reserve faces a potentially contentious meeting, as Chair Jerome Powell navigates divisions among policymakers regarding a third interest rate cut. Economists suggest that several officials might vote against the cut due to an economy marked by elevated inflation and weak job growth. The upcoming decision may be a preview of the Fed’s future direction, especially considering the potential influence of a new chair appointed by President Trump. Despite potential dissent, most economists anticipate a “hawkish cut,” with a rate reduction accompanied by signals of a pause to assess economic health.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% annual consumer price growth in September, slightly exceeding August’s 2.9%. While the monthly rate fell from 0.3% to 0.2%, key categories experienced increases. This report, released despite the government shutdown, has implications for the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower its benchmark rate. Though the inflation rate remains a concern, experts predict fewer interest rate cuts in the future than initially anticipated.
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The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter-point, projecting two more cuts this year due to concerns about the labor market’s health. This move, the first since December, reflects a shift from focusing on inflation to employment, as hiring slows. While the Fed aims to boost growth and hiring, the decision faced dissent from a newly appointed policymaker favoring a larger cut. Despite some internal differences, officials still anticipate further rate reductions, although less than Wall Street had anticipated. The Fed faces the challenges of a weakening economy and external pressures on its independence, particularly regarding the attempt to remove a Fed governor.
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On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent, marking its first cut since March. This decision was made due to a weakening economy, softening job market, and reduced inflation risks, which the central bank believes are now more “contained”. The U.S. trade war continues to impact the Canadian economy, specifically in tariff-exposed industries. Despite a stronger-than-expected consumer spending in the second quarter, the central bank decided that a rate cut was still appropriate to better balance the risks going forward.
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Former President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he is considering a major lawsuit against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, citing the rising costs of the Fed’s building renovation project, which Trump claims is grossly mismanaged. The Fed attributes the project’s higher-than-expected costs to necessary redesigns and unforeseen issues like asbestos and soil contamination. Trump’s post also reiterated his demand for Powell to cut interest rates following the latest inflation data, as headline CPI inflation held steady while core inflation accelerated. Market expectations have shifted toward a September rate cut, although some experts express concerns about the trend of rising core inflation.
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During a tour of the Federal Reserve headquarters renovation, former President Trump cited a significantly inflated cost of $3.1 billion, which was immediately refuted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who clarified the included figure encompassed an unrelated building. The visit occurred amidst Trump’s ongoing criticism of Powell and his interest rate policies, with the former president previously considering Powell’s dismissal. Despite the friction, Trump suggested he was now unlikely to fire Powell but maintained his desire for lower interest rates, while Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s independence and highlighted the renovation’s necessity.
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During a tour of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation project, President Trump criticized the project’s rising costs, but was corrected by Chairman Powell. Trump, who had previously attacked Powell, claimed the cost had increased to $3.1 billion, but Powell clarified that the president was including a previously completed building in his calculations. This exchange occurred amidst Trump’s ongoing public criticism of Powell and the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding interest rates and the renovation project’s budget. Despite his public attacks, Trump refrained from direct confrontation during the visit, joking about wanting lower interest rates.
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Despite reports of an imminent dismissal, former President Donald Trump denied plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, although he did acknowledge discussing the possibility with House Republicans, who largely supported the move. Trump, who appointed Powell during his presidency, has criticized him for not lowering interest rates quickly enough and has also expressed the view that there is no inflation. While the president expressed his discontent with Powell’s performance, he did not rule out the possibility of firing him, but said the chances were “highly unlikely.”
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John Q. Hosedrinker