In imagining the United States in 2029 under a Trump presidency, the article envisions a dismantling of the existing global order and a shift towards a tricontinental vision: with Russia in its sphere, China as a regional hegemon, and the US dominating the Americas. This “America First” approach involves a dismantling of alliances, trade wars, and a focus on domestic policies detrimental to the economy. The consequences are projected to include significant economic challenges, a weakened global influence, and a potential decline in the American quality of life.
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The SAVE program, designed to aid student loan borrowers, is likely ending due to a settlement between the Trump administration and several states’ attorneys general, which will force nearly eight million borrowers into new repayment plans. This will result in increased monthly payments, potentially doubling for some, and a potential “tax bomb” at the end of the loan term. This change could force people into financial hardship. This decision will likely exacerbate existing financial pressures, as many borrowers face other debts and rising costs, potentially leading to increased delinquency rates and economic disruption.
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Taiwan’s population continued its decline for the 23rd consecutive month, with November births hitting a new record low. The island saw 7,946 births in November, marking the third record low this year and contributing to a negative natural population change. The aging population reached nearly super-aged status, with the 65+ age group comprising 19.99% of the population. While deaths decreased, the birth rate remained low, further solidifying the trend.
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A new report from a U.S. congressional committee highlights the negative economic impacts of declining Canadian tourism to the United States. The report indicates that U.S. businesses in border states are experiencing significant losses due to decreased travel, citing factors such as Trump-era tariff policies and strained diplomatic relations. Examples are provided for several states, showcasing reduced border crossings and drops in revenue across various sectors, including hospitality and retail. Business owners report diminished sales, increased vacancies, and the need to reduce staffing due to the decline in Canadian visitors, with some fearing long-term damage to cross-border relationships.
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A recent study by Corisk and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs has revealed that a Russian military victory in Ukraine would be significantly more costly for Europe compared to a Ukrainian victory. The researchers outlined two scenarios: a Russian partial victory, which could lead to long-term political instability and a surge of refugees, resulting in costs ranging from €1.2 to €1.6 trillion due to defense spending and refugee-related expenses. Conversely, a Ukrainian victory, facilitated by substantial military aid, would cost Europe approximately €522–838 billion. The study highlights the urgency for Europe to support Ukraine as the United States’ support may wane, and the European Commission is exploring a reparations loan scheme to finance Ukraine’s needs.
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Recent reports indicate that payments to Russian troops fighting in Ukraine have been suspended in Yakutia due to regional budget shortfalls, with the finance minister citing an inability to forecast demand. This follows a period of record military spending by Russia, which has offered substantial financial incentives to attract recruits. The suspension of payments could signal financial strain and liquidity problems within Russia’s war effort, as several other regions have already cut bonuses to recruits. Despite assurances from Yakutia officials that payments will be made, the ongoing economic impact of the war may lead to further financial difficulties.
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A recent CBS News poll indicates that a significant majority of Americans, 65%, believe former President Trump’s policies are contributing to rising grocery costs. The poll data suggests a widespread perception that these policies are negatively impacting consumer spending at the supermarket. Further analysis is needed to determine the specific policies that are driving this perception among the American public.
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Ukraine to turn tables in “first symmetric winter” as its drones overwhelm Russian air defenses. It’s truly something to consider how the dynamics of this conflict might be shifting. The idea of a “first symmetric winter” suggests a potential turning of the tide, where Ukraine, through the strategic use of drones, could begin to effectively target and degrade Russian infrastructure in a way that mirrors, or at least balances, the attacks they’ve been enduring.
The core of this shift lies in the effectiveness of Ukraine’s drone campaign. The reports suggest that these attacks are increasingly challenging Russian air defenses. It creates a picture of a smaller nation essentially punching above its weight, exploiting the vulnerabilities in a much larger nation’s defenses.… Continue reading
No firm is immune if AI bubble bursts, Google CEO tells BBC, and the truth of that statement, as I understand it, is complex. From the digital ether, the echoes of Sundar Pichai’s words resonate, acknowledging the potential for an AI bubble and the broad impact its bursting would have. It’s an interesting sentiment, isn’t it? Acknowledging the “elements of irrationality” in the market, drawing parallels to the dot-com era’s cautionary tale. It almost feels like a warning, a heads-up to prepare for a potential downturn.
No firm is immune if AI bubble bursts, the implication being that a widespread economic impact is almost inevitable.… Continue reading
The U.S. economy is facing a decline in international tourism spending, largely due to a decrease in Canadian visitors. A recent U.S. Travel Association report forecasts a $5.7 billion USD loss in 2025, with double-digit drops in Canadian air and land travel to the U.S. observed. Canadians, traditionally the largest group of international tourists, are reportedly deterred by the current political climate and policies, as evidenced by an Angus Reid poll showing 70% of Canadians uncomfortable traveling to the U.S. Some U.S. tourism organizations near the Canadian border are responding with incentive programs and discounts in an effort to attract Canadians back.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood