US consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in March, a trend fueled by a confluence of factors that are eroding confidence in the economy and prompting consumers to significantly curtail spending. The uncertainty surrounding government policies, particularly concerning potential job losses due to funding cuts in crucial sectors like research, is a major contributor to this downturn. People are hesitant to make large purchases, opting instead to hoard cash and prioritize essential expenses. This is fundamentally shifting the behavior of a segment of the population that typically contributes significantly to economic activity.
This shift in consumer behavior is directly impacting the economy. When consumers, the engine of the US economy, lose confidence and pull back from non-essential spending, the overall economic health suffers.… Continue reading
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker projects a concerning 1.5% decline in GDP for Q1 2025, revised down from a previously projected 2.3% growth. This downward revision stems from weaker-than-expected consumer spending in January and significantly decreased net exports. Further contributing to the negative outlook are decreased consumer confidence, rising inflation concerns, and an increase in unemployment claims. These factors, coupled with an inverted yield curve, suggest a potential recession.
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Consumer spending unexpectedly dropped 0.2% in January, the largest decrease since February 2021, despite rising incomes. This decline, potentially fueled by economic uncertainty stemming from tariff threats and potential government job cuts, contrasts with cooling inflation (2.5% year-over-year). However, the proposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China are expected to increase prices, potentially offsetting this positive trend. Businesses are already planning price increases and job cuts in response.
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Nearly 3 million Chinese restaurants, cafes, and other food service establishments have closed their doors in the past year. This significant reduction, reported by industry website Hongcan, represents a substantial contraction of the catering sector. The closures span the entire industry, from high-end fine dining restaurants to humble cafes, bakeries, and fast-food outlets. Even internationally renowned establishments haven’t been immune, with some experiencing bankruptcy and leaving employees and suppliers unpaid. This widespread downturn points to a significant economic shift within China.
The closure of nearly 3 million businesses underscores a broader economic challenge: a lack of disposable income among consumers. With a flagging economy, people are cutting back on expenses, and eating out, buying treats, and enjoying luxury items like fancy teas are among the first things to go.… Continue reading
Republican consumers, just a few months after vehemently criticizing the economy and soaring inflation, are now seemingly giddy about the current state of affairs. Record-breaking Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, along with the best Thanksgiving weekend box office ever, paint a picture of robust consumer spending. This stands in stark contrast to their previous pronouncements of economic doom.
This sudden shift in sentiment is baffling to many. The same individuals who were previously vocal about the struggles of affording groceries and gas now appear unconcerned, suggesting that perhaps the economic anxieties weren’t as genuine as they claimed. Some observers posit that the focus was never truly on economic policy but rather on electing a candidate aligned with their social and cultural views – a candidate who, coincidentally, shares their perspectives on issues such as homophobia, transphobia, racism, and misogyny.… Continue reading
Black Friday 2024 shattered previous ecommerce sales records, reaching $10.8 billion in US online sales—a 10.2% year-over-year increase. This surge, driven by mobile shopping (55% of online sales) and increased Buy Now, Pay Later usage (8.8% year-over-year growth), surpassed even Thanksgiving’s online sales. Significant growth was observed in categories like toys (622% increase over October daily average), highlighting consumers’ responsiveness to deep discounts averaging 28% off. Globally, Black Friday online sales reached $74.4 billion, with AI playing a significant role in driving conversions.
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Buy Now Before Tariffs Hit, Retailers Are Telling Shoppers; A Closer Look at the Panic
Retailers are aggressively urging consumers to make purchases now, citing the looming threat of impending tariffs. The message is clear: buy now or pay more later. This push is happening across various sectors, creating a sense of urgency among shoppers. But is this genuine concern, or is there a more calculated strategy at play?
The timing of this push is interesting, coinciding with the holiday shopping season. This naturally leads to questions about whether this is a genuine attempt to warn customers or a shrewd marketing tactic capitalizing on existing consumer anxieties and holiday spending habits.… Continue reading
Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker