The erosion of democracy is subtle, often manifesting as “competitive authoritarianism” where elections occur but incumbents abuse power to suppress opposition through legal means. This gradual shift is difficult to detect, as attacks on rivals often appear legitimate, delaying recognition of authoritarian tendencies. A key indicator is the cost of opposing the government; in democracies, opposition is protected, while authoritarian regimes punish dissent through various legal and extralegal means. Therefore, the increasing price of opposing the government serves as a critical metric for identifying a slide towards authoritarianism.
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Donald Trump’s presidency exhibits numerous characteristics of an autocratic regime, including disregard for scientific consensus, assault on legal institutions, and erosion of civil liberties. Political scientists utilize models of incremental autocratization, identifying the U.S. as having already progressed through three stages: social turmoil, a project of radical change, and a decisive electoral victory. The nation now teeters on the fourth stage, dismantling checks and balances, evidenced by threats to judicial authority and the potential for unlawful detention. Continued movement along this path risks further infringement of basic rights and freedoms, transforming the U.S. into a competitive authoritarian state.
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A recent Bright Line Watch survey of over 500 political scientists reveals a significant consensus: the United States is rapidly transitioning away from liberal democracy towards competitive authoritarianism. This decline, marked by a precipitous drop in American democracy’s rating from 67 to 55 between November and February, is attributed to actions perceived as eroding checks and balances, targeting the media and academia, and punishing dissent. While some scholars dispute this assessment, citing the use of legitimate presidential powers, many cite specific examples mirroring tactics used in countries like Hungary and Turkey. Although concerns remain, some believe the U.S. system’s resilience, coupled with Trump’s lack of overwhelming popular support, may prevent a complete shift to autocracy.
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John Q. Hosedrinker