Cold War Deterrence

NATO’s Defensive Posture Questioned Amidst Russian Threat

NATO Military Committee Chair Rob Bauer asserts that while Russia’s military has expanded since the war began, its effectiveness has diminished, affording the West time to bolster defenses. He stresses the need for increased defense industry investment and adaptation to potential wartime scenarios, citing Russia’s and China’s control over vital resources like energy and rare earth minerals as vulnerabilities. Bauer emphasizes the strategic implications of Western reliance on these resources and advocates for proactive measures, including preemptive strikes on Russian territory in the event of an attack. This shift reflects NATO’s evolving strategic posture, moving away from a purely reactive defense.

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Russia’s Missile Launch: Escalation or Miscalculation?

Russia’s use of a MIRVed ballistic missile in Ukraine marks a dangerous escalation, representing the first-ever combat use of this technology. This departure from Cold War deterrence doctrine, where such missiles were designed to prevent nuclear war, now raises concerns about a “use them or lose them” scenario, incentivizing preemptive strikes. The high destructive capacity and vulnerability of MIRVs, even in conventional use, increases global instability. The proliferation of MIRV technology among various nations further exacerbates this risk, creating a more dangerous geopolitical environment.

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