According to recent data from Statistics Canada, the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. in August experienced a significant decline, falling by 29.7% to 2.9 million trips. Simultaneously, U.S. residents visiting Canada also decreased, but to a lesser extent, resulting in more Americans travelling to Canada than Canadians travelling to the States for the third time since June 2006. While Canadian travel to the U.S. decreased, overseas trips by Canadians and non-U.S. residents visiting Canada both saw increases. The growth in overseas visitors was primarily due to travelers from Europe and Asia.
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Canadian travel to the US has plummeted for the seventh consecutive month, with car trips down 36.9% and air travel down 25.8% in July compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including fallout from antagonistic trade policies and threats from the White House, as well as Canada’s ongoing cost of living crisis. While US residents’ land travel to Canada also decreased, air travel saw a slight increase. The diverging economic trajectories of the two countries further contribute to these trends.
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Amidst an ongoing trade war, some Canadians are opting to avoid travel to the United States. Data from Flight Centre Canada indicates significant increases in travel spending to various international destinations. Countries like Argentina, Japan, and Denmark have seen substantial growth in Canadian visitors, mirroring similar trends observed by tourism organizations in Japan, Portugal, and Brazil. Travel experts attribute this shift to a desire for Canadians to feel welcome, alongside a shift to longer international trips that are a better value.
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The U.S. Ambassador to Canada disputes Ottawa’s updated travel advisory warning Canadians of potential border detentions and device searches, calling such concerns unfounded. He claims that while some Americans report negative experiences entering Canada, reports of widespread U.S. border searches are inaccurate. The CBSA maintains its officers adhere to a code of conduct ensuring fair treatment of all travelers, while acknowledging and investigating complaints. Despite the ambassador’s assurances, recent data shows a significant decrease in travel between the two countries, fueled by perceived safety concerns and unwelcoming experiences among some Canadians and LGBTQ2 groups.
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Governor Newsom’s recent social media campaign urging Canadians to visit California is facing significant backlash. The campaign, launched amidst heightened immigration enforcement concerns under the Trump administration, ignores warnings from Canada and other nations advising citizens to carry extensive documentation when traveling to the U.S. Social media users cited the unlawful detention of Kilmar Abrego Garcia as a reason for apprehension about visiting. This push for tourism comes despite the Canadian Association of University Teachers recommending non-essential travel to the U.S. be avoided.
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Forward bookings for flights from Canada to the U.S. have plummeted by over 70 percent since last year, with April experiencing the steepest decline at 76 percent. This significant drop, impacting the U.S. tourism sector which relies heavily on Canadian travelers, is attributed to growing anti-American sentiment fueled by President Trump’s trade policies and rhetoric. The resulting “buy Canadian” movement, coupled with updated Canadian travel advisories highlighting U.S. immigration concerns, contributes to the decline in tourism. Airlines are already reducing flight capacity, anticipating further impacts on the traditional “snowbird” travel market. This situation reflects the broader economic consequences of the U.S.-Canada trade dispute beyond direct tariff impacts.
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John Q. Hosedrinker