Economists are predicting that Canada is already experiencing the early stages of a recession. This downturn is being attributed to a number of factors, with the ongoing trade war with the United States playing a significant role. The projected economic contraction for the second and third quarters indicates a technical recession, a situation defined by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
Unemployment is rising in Canada concurrently with this predicted contraction. This is a key indicator of a slowing economy, as businesses reduce their workforce in response to decreased demand and profitability. A rise in unemployment often translates to decreased consumer spending, further exacerbating the economic slowdown.… Continue reading
President Trump announced a proposed 50% tariff on all European Union imports, effective June 1, 2025, citing stalled trade negotiations and unacceptable trade deficits exceeding $250 billion annually. This decision follows Trump’s recent threats against Apple and reverses a trend of recent trade deal announcements that had calmed investor concerns. Treasury Secretary Bessent hopes the tariff announcement will pressure the EU into more favorable negotiations. The announcement caused immediate negative reactions in both U.S. and European stock markets.
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President Trump expressed willingness to visit China for talks with Xi Jinping, citing the importance of US-China relations. This follows repeated expressions of his desire to speak with the Chinese leader, most recently after a temporary trade war truce was negotiated. The truce involved reduced tariffs on both US and Chinese goods. Trump also framed his recent Middle Eastern trip as an effort to counter China’s growing influence in the region.
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India’s response to President Trump’s perceived interference in the Kashmir ceasefire and his subsequent comments regarding trade deals is shaping up to be a significant countermove. The strong negative reaction from many within India stems from a deep-seated feeling that Trump overstepped his boundaries, using the ceasefire as leverage in a trade negotiation. The sentiment widely expressed is that this was inappropriate and unacceptable.
The widely held opinion is that Trump’s actions weren’t just clumsy; they were seen as a form of bullying. Many felt his actions emboldened Pakistan and undermined India’s sovereignty. There’s a pervasive belief that India should not be pressured into trade deals through such tactics, and that any concessions made under duress would be perceived as a sign of weakness.… Continue reading
Following talks in Geneva, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction, with both sides lowering rates by 115 percent. This agreement, hailed by China as an important step toward deeper cooperation, aims to resolve trade tensions stemming from significant tariff increases imposed earlier. While the U.S. will maintain some tariffs, China will suspend retaliatory measures, including restrictions on rare earth minerals. The deal sparked optimism among investors, evidenced by the dollar’s surge following the announcement.
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Ruhle’s commentary highlights President Trump’s inconsistent stance on tariffs, exposing a potential supply chain crisis looming within three weeks due to decreasing cargo shipments. Trump’s wavering on tariffs, initially presented with strong rhetoric, now suggests a desire for a negotiated exit from the trade dispute. This inconsistency, exemplified by a hastily announced, unfinished UK trade deal and fluctuating tariff positions on China, threatens to mirror the economic disruptions experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The Federal Reserve’s stagflation warning dominated the discussion, alongside concerns about Donald Trump’s aggressive trade rhetoric toward China. Experts highlighted the significant risk these factors pose to the U.S. economy. Nicolle Wallace framed the situation as the economy being held captive by a single individual’s unpredictable actions and beliefs. Contributors included economist Justin Wolfers, former Congressman David Jolly, and Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen.
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Facing increased tariffs on goods from China, Mattel, the maker of Barbie, announced plans to raise toy prices in the US market to offset losses. These price increases are a direct result of President Trump’s trade war, with the company citing potential costs of $270 million this year alone. To mitigate future impacts, Mattel is diversifying its supply chain and relocating production of 500 toys from China. However, the company does not intend to shift production to the United States, instead opting for other cost-effective manufacturing locations abroad.
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During a meeting, President Trump firmly refused to reduce tariffs on Canadian goods, citing unfair treatment by Canada and falsely claiming a massive US subsidy to Canada. While acknowledging Canada’s significant purchasing power of US goods, Trump’s tariffs, impacting various sectors, are harming both nations. Prime Minister Carney countered that Canada will not become a US state, while urging a dialogue to lower tariffs. Despite Trump’s openness to future negotiations, a trade deal was not reached.
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March saw the U.S. goods trade deficit reach a record $163.5 billion, an 11.2% increase from February, driven by importers stockpiling goods ahead of anticipated tariffs. This surge in imports contributed to the 0.3% economic contraction in the first quarter. President Trump, citing unfair trade practices by other nations, initiated reciprocal tariffs, though some have been temporarily paused for negotiation purposes. The President anticipates announcing new trade deals within weeks.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker