Germany is set to become Europe’s largest military, spurred by concerns of a new Trump presidency and the war in Ukraine. The nation plans to change its constitution and allocate 3.5% of its GDP to defense spending. This shift includes a $117 billion special fund, suspending the debt brake to facilitate nearly $400 billion in defense spending through 2029, without impacting core budgets. While defense companies experience increased sales, rebuilding a culture of military service faces challenges, with the Bundeswehr working to improve its public image and attract new recruits.
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President Donald Trump arrived in The Hague for his first NATO summit since returning to office, a meeting overshadowed by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, despite a previously called-for ceasefire. Trump expressed displeasure with both nations for allegedly violating the truce, suggesting Israel overreacted to Iranian missile launches. Key objectives for the summit included securing commitments from NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to “hard defense,” and reiterating support for Ukraine, including counting military aid towards defense spending goals. The summit’s agenda was carefully managed to project unity, with a focus on a closed-door working session and a single-page communique.
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Canada and the EU have formalized a comprehensive security and defense partnership, as announced by Prime Minister Mark Carney and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. This agreement, which includes support for Ukraine and collaboration on issues ranging from climate change to AI, allows Canada to participate in the EU’s €150bn defense fund. The pact, mirroring one signed with the UK, signifies a deepening of transatlantic alliances, possibly influenced by global instability and former US President Donald Trump’s stance on allies. This partnership opens doors for joint procurement and enhanced defense capabilities for Canada, despite its current defense spending falling short of NATO’s 2% GDP target.
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In a significant development ahead of the NATO summit, all 32 member states have agreed to a statement aiming for a 5% GDP increase in annual defense and security spending by 2035. This agreement follows the overcoming of Spanish objections to previous proposals, representing a key win for those advocating for increased defense budgets. While the statement awaits formal endorsement at the summit, it signals a substantial commitment to bolstering collective defense capabilities. The details of Spain’s change in stance remain undisclosed.
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The upcoming NATO summit, the first since President Trump’s return, will see significant debate over increasing defense spending. While the U.S. seeks a 5% GDP target, Spain, already meeting the current 2% goal, is requesting an exception or flexible wording to avoid this higher commitment. In contrast, Sweden has committed to reaching the 5% target by 2032. This divergence in approaches highlights the challenges of achieving consensus within the alliance’s decision-making process.
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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, citing Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, called for a significant increase in alliance defense spending, aiming for a 3.5% GDP target by 2032 plus an additional 1.5% for related security initiatives. This urgent plea emphasizes the need for a 400% boost in air and missile defense capabilities, directly addressing Russia’s sustained attacks on Ukrainian cities. Rutte’s proposal underscores the persistent threat posed by Russia even after a potential end to the war in Ukraine, necessitating a substantial strengthening of NATO’s collective defense posture.
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Germany’s military procurement chief, Annette Lehnigk-Emden, announced a three-year deadline for acquiring necessary equipment to counter potential Russian aggression against NATO. This ambitious rearmament plan, fueled by increased defense spending and spurred by warnings of a possible 2029 Russian attack, prioritizes heavy equipment like Skyranger anti-aircraft tanks. The goal is to create a powerful conventional army, necessitating significant troop increases to approximately 203,000 soldiers by 2031. This accelerated modernization reflects pressure from both the US and Germany’s own government.
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The UK government will build up to 12 new conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered attack submarines, replacing the current Astute class fleet from the late 2030s. This initiative, part of a larger £40bn defence review, also includes £15bn for the nuclear warhead programme and investments in munitions production, long-range weaponry, cyber capabilities, and military housing. The new submarine program is expected to create tens of thousands of jobs and apprenticeships. These actions aim to enhance the UK’s warfighting readiness and deter growing threats.
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International sanctions have cost Russia an estimated US$450 billion in energy sector revenue. This financial strain, coupled with a 21% interest rate surge and prioritization of defense spending over social programs, reflects deep economic instability within Russia. Defense spending now surpasses social spending for the first time since the Soviet Union’s collapse, and the nation has depleted a significant portion of its National Wealth Fund. These economic realities underscore the Kremlin’s prioritization of the war effort over its citizens’ well-being.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged NATO allies to increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP, citing the need for a stronger and more viable alliance. This call comes amidst EU frustration with U.S. tariffs and uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine conflict. Rubio emphasized that increased military capability, particularly in light of the war in Ukraine, is crucial for deterrence. He stated that the U.S. remains committed to NATO, but expects its partners to fulfill their spending commitments. At least one NATO member, Estonia, has already pledged to meet the 5% target.
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John Q. Hosedrinker