Commercial vessels continued their transit through the Strait of Hormuz on June 17, leading to a nearly 4% drop in oil prices as optimism grew regarding the resolution of supply disruptions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude futures experienced their lowest closing prices since March 2 and February 28, respectively, as a result of this easing tension. In response to the declining crude costs, President Trump criticized oil companies for not passing these savings onto consumers at the pump and directed the Department of Justice to investigate potential price gouging.
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U.S. gas prices are continuing their upward trajectory, with the effects of the ongoing war abroad undeniably reverberating through American wallets. It seems that no matter how much we might wish otherwise, the global geopolitical landscape has a direct and tangible impact on our daily lives, and right now, that impact is being felt at the pump. The price of crude oil, the fundamental commodity that dictates gasoline costs, has been on a significant climb. Reports indicate that Brent Crude is nearing $120 a barrel, a level that certainly portends further price hikes. This isn’t some abstract economic theory; it’s a straightforward connection.… Continue reading
Recent geopolitical events have sent crude prices soaring, with Brent crude futures surpassing $112 per barrel following Iraq’s declaration of force majeure at foreign-operated oilfields due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Drones also targeted Kuwaiti refineries, prompting precautionary shutdowns and further contributing to market anxiety. Analysts suggest prices could surge significantly if these disruptions persist, leading the U.S. to consider lifting sanctions on Iranian crude held on tankers to alleviate price pressures.
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Goldman Sachs analysts predict a worst-case scenario of Brent crude oil prices falling below $40 per barrel by late 2026, driven by a global GDP slowdown and a complete reversal of OPEC+ production cuts. Their base-case forecast, however, anticipates Brent crude at $55 per barrel by December 2026, assuming moderate OPEC supply increases and no US recession. A more moderate recession scenario projects Brent at $50 per barrel by December 2026. This price volatility significantly impacts US oil producers, many of whom have breakeven costs exceeding $62 per barrel, threatening production and profitability.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood