China’s population continues to shrink for the fourth consecutive year, reaching 1.404 billion in 2025, which is 3 million less than the previous year. The birth rate in 2025, at 5.63 per 1,000 people, marked the lowest on record since 1949, and the number of newborns decreased to 7.92 million. Facing demographic pressures and an aging population, the government has implemented policies like cash subsidies, taxing condoms, and eliminating taxes on daycares to encourage more births, but the efforts have not been successful so far. Experts note that larger issues like housing costs, job opportunities, and education expectations need to be addressed to see any major changes.
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In an effort to address declining birth rates, China has eliminated a three-decade-old tax exemption on contraceptive drugs and devices, implementing a 13% value-added tax on these items starting January 1st. This action follows the continued population decline, now in its third consecutive year, and numerous other “fertility-friendly” measures enacted in 2024, including childcare subsidies and promotion of positive marriage attitudes. The country is grappling with these demographic challenges, exacerbated by the lasting impacts of the one-child policy, urbanization, high childcare costs, and economic factors which have collectively discouraged marriage and family formation.
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During his annual “Direct Line” call-in show, Vladimir Putin advocated for Russians to emulate Caucasus traditions of early marriage to combat the country’s declining birth rate, citing Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov as an example. This call came as Russia faces a severe demographic crisis, with the fertility rate significantly below replacement levels and birth rates at their lowest since 1999. Putin framed having children as a moral duty and has implemented “family-centered” strategies. These strategies include campaigns promoting large families and restricting content that encourages a child-free lifestyle.
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China is implementing a 13% value-added tax (VAT) on condoms and contraceptives starting January 1st, reversing a three-decade exemption, as part of its efforts to boost the birthrate and modernize its tax laws. This move, included in a 2024 VAT law, follows the relaxation of the one-child policy and the introduction of various incentives like childcare subsidies, despite having a marginal impact on the country’s birth rate. While some experts believe this tax will have a negligible effect on fertility, others express concern about the message it sends, particularly for women, and highlight that the revenue generation is not the primary motivation. The tax change may be a shift towards less direct encouragement and an attempt to codify the tax system further.
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Taiwan’s population continued its decline for the 23rd consecutive month, with November births hitting a new record low. The island saw 7,946 births in November, marking the third record low this year and contributing to a negative natural population change. The aging population reached nearly super-aged status, with the 65+ age group comprising 19.99% of the population. While deaths decreased, the birth rate remained low, further solidifying the trend.
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Beginning next month, China will impose a value-added tax on condoms and other contraceptives, reversing a 33-year exemption. This policy change, part of a broader effort to boost the nation’s declining birth rate, will likely increase the cost of contraception. Experts express concern that this tax could limit access to contraception, particularly for young people, while also overlooking gender-equality concerns and potentially increasing STI rates. Simultaneously, the state is promoting marriage and childbearing, with matchmaking agencies newly added to the tax-exempt list, creating a shift in how the state approaches family, marriage, and reproduction.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed grave concern over Turkey’s declining birth rate, deeming it a potential “catastrophe.” He highlighted the fertility rate’s drop below replacement levels and the increasing elderly population. Erdogan linked this demographic shift to detrimental social changes and indicated measures against LGBT movements and gender neutrality. Experts suggest this decline is tied to factors like women’s increased education and career aspirations.
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In 2024, Japan witnessed a record high in births to foreign parents, with over 20,000 babies born, comprising more than 3% of all newborns, contrasting sharply with the declining birth rate among Japanese parents. This trend reflects the soaring non-Japanese population, driven by increased migrant workers filling labor market gaps. The rise in foreign-born children is impacting political discourse, as right-wing politicians call for stricter immigration rules, while experts emphasize the need for policies to support foreign families and ensure their integration into Japanese society. The justice minister anticipates the proportion of foreign residents could exceed 10% of the population by 2040, underscoring the evolving demographic landscape.
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Japan’s population experienced a significant decline in 2024, with almost a million more deaths than births, marking the steepest annual drop since 1968. Births reached a record low of 686,061, while the overall population decreased by 0.44%, primarily impacting the pension and healthcare systems. Despite government efforts to boost birth rates through various incentives and embracing foreign labor, deep-seated cultural and economic challenges, such as high living costs and stagnant wages, continue to hinder progress. With a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce, Japan faces a demographic crisis that will require long-term solutions.
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John Q. Hosedrinker