The ruble’s recent performance as the top-performing currency is a complex issue, defying simple explanations. While it’s true that the ruble has experienced a significant percentage increase, this doesn’t necessarily reflect a robust Russian economy. In fact, the ruble’s value remains relatively low compared to historical highs and other major currencies. The significant increase is more accurately interpreted as a percentage-based gain from a previously depressed state; a smaller numerical increase from a higher starting point would not register as significantly. This gain isn’t necessarily indicative of economic strength within Russia itself.
The current situation highlights the importance of considering the baseline.… Continue reading
A leaked U.S. peace proposal, discussed in Paris, suggests a ceasefire in Ukraine that would leave occupied territories under Russian control and potentially ease sanctions on Moscow. The plan, which requires further discussion with Kyiv and European allies, would reportedly involve a freeze on the conflict and preclude Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. However, the proposal has been met with resistance from Ukraine’s president, who rejects any recognition of Russian control over occupied territories. Failure to secure a Russian agreement to halt hostilities would render the proposal void.
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Moscow plans to use the seized US-owned canned food company, Glavprodukt, to supply the Russian army with food. This move, which effectively nationalized a significant food producer, highlights the increasingly strained relationship between Russia and the United States. The company, previously owned by Leonid Smirnov, a Russian-born American businessman, was placed under “temporary management” by the Russian state in October 2024, a decision that has since sparked considerable controversy and diplomatic tension.
The seizure of Glavprodukt is not an isolated incident. It follows a pattern of Russian authorities seizing assets of foreign companies operating within the country, often citing vaguely defined national security concerns or accusations of financial impropriety.… Continue reading
President Trump’s new tariffs, announced on “Liberation Day,” targeted numerous U.S. trading partners, notably excluding Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and Cuba. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett explained that this exclusion stemmed from a conscious decision to avoid complicating ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Imposing tariffs at this juncture, Hassett argued, risked disrupting diplomatic progress. While Ukraine faced new tariffs, its economy minister deemed the impact manageable, despite significant trade with the U.S.
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Switzerland has frozen CHF7.4 billion ($8.4 billion) in Russian assets, a CHF1.6 billion increase from the previous year. This rise reflects the identification and subsequent freezing of additional assets. Furthermore, 14 real estate properties belonging to sanctioned individuals and entities have been seized. Criminal proceedings have been initiated by the Swiss Attorney General following a SECO investigation, resulting in an additional CHF1.65 billion in super-provisional asset freezes.
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Gazprom reported a staggering net loss of 1.076 trillion rubles ($13.1 billion) in 2024, primarily due to the loss of the European market following the Ukraine invasion. This represents a significant decline from its 2023 loss of 629 billion rubles ($7.6 billion), despite a slight revenue increase. Contributing factors include decreased gas exports to the EU, falling subsidiary share prices, and increased tax burdens. The company is responding to its financial crisis with cost-cutting measures, including staff reductions.
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Following US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia, a proposed 30-day ceasefire was agreed upon, contingent on Russia’s acceptance. President Zelenskyy anticipates strong US action, potentially sanctions, if Russia refuses. While initial messages from the US were positive, the situation remains critical, with the potential for escalation. Russia, however, expressed skepticism and insisted on a settlement on its terms, while Ukraine seeks security guarantees for a lasting peace.
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Trump’s recent pronouncements regarding Russia and the war in Ukraine are, to put it mildly, perplexing. He’s threatening Russia with sanctions and tariffs unless a ceasefire is implemented, yet this seemingly strong stance feels oddly performative. The timing, coupled with his past actions and statements, suggests a deeper, more troubling motivation.
It’s hard to ignore the widespread perception of Trump as being overly friendly to Russia. This threat of sanctions might be a desperate attempt to deflect those accusations. The inherent contradiction, however, is glaring. The very real possibility that he’s simply trying to salvage his image as a strong leader, rather than genuinely aiming to pressure Russia, lingers.… Continue reading
Driven by concerns over waning U.S. support and escalating tensions, the EU is exploring using frozen Russian central bank assets—approximately $280 billion—to aid Ukraine. Proposals include using these assets as collateral for an International Claims Commission to assess damages, potentially leading to confiscation if Russia refuses payment, or directly allocating them to Ukrainian energy infrastructure reconstruction. While some EU members express legal and economic reservations, the European Commission is initiating negotiations for the Claims Commission on March 24th. This initiative supplements the G7’s pledge to use profits from frozen assets for a Ukrainian loan.
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Despite some Western companies considering a return to Russia post-war, the Russian government is prioritizing domestic businesses and isn’t eagerly awaiting their return. Officials have stated that there will be consequences for past decisions, emphasizing a focus on domestic and Eurasian Economic Union companies. While some Western firms may be tempted by potential opportunities, concerns about staff safety, rule of law, and reputational damage remain significant deterrents. The current Russian economic climate, marked by high inflation and a challenging energy market, further complicates the appeal of re-entering the market.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker