Following the Soviet Union’s collapse, Russia’s unchecked power in the Black Sea grew significantly. Inheritance of the Black Sea fleet and the Sevastopol base, coupled with Crimea’s annexation, solidified Russia’s regional dominance. This control extends to Ukrainian shipping routes. Furthermore, modernization efforts have established substantial anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, challenging NATO’s influence in the region.
Over a 24-hour period, Ukrainian forces using naval drones successfully destroyed two Russian aircraft in Crimea and over the Black Sea. These strikes, utilizing Magura drones equipped with AIM-9 missiles, also targeted and destroyed Russian military depots in occupied Crimea. One strike marked the world’s first destruction of a fighter jet by a naval drone. President Zelensky praised the actions, highlighting the expanding long-range capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces.
A key agreement reached involves a mutual commitment by Ukraine and Russia to refrain from targeting each other’s energy infrastructure. This understanding extends to ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea for civilian vessels, prohibiting strikes on port infrastructure. While details remain to be clarified, the agreement represents an initial step toward de-escalation. Further, the US and Ukraine have also separately agreed to work toward safe Black Sea navigation and prisoner exchanges.
Romania’s interim president, Ilie Bolojan, participated in a London summit on European defense, hosted by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Key agreements included continued military and financial support for Ukraine until a ceasefire, increased European defense budgets, and the acknowledgment that security guarantees for Ukraine require US support. These guarantees aim to secure the entire eastern flank, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, and necessitate a collaborative transatlantic plan. Further consultations are planned for the coming week to finalize decisions.
John Q. Hosedrinker