Russia attacks Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and civilian ships, Kyiv says, and it’s difficult not to be struck by the sheer contradiction of it all. The narrative of wanting peace, wanting what’s best for Ukraine, just doesn’t align with the actions of striking ports and civilian shipping. It’s like they’re speaking one language and acting in another, a language of coercion and disruption. It’s a strategy that inevitably hardens positions and raises costs, the exact opposite of what’s needed to build any path to negotiations.
The “we want peace” line rings incredibly hollow when the target list keeps expanding. This includes both the ports and the civilian shipping.… Continue reading
Frontline report: Russian drone incursions push Turkey to the brink of closing Black Sea shipping routes. The situation in the Black Sea is heating up, and it’s easy to get lost in the speculation. The crux of the matter is that repeated Russian drone incursions into Turkish airspace are putting significant pressure on Ankara. It is as though the Russians are playing a dangerous game, testing the waters, and pushing boundaries.
These aren’t just isolated incidents. They represent a pattern of behavior that has the potential to escalate. We’re talking about a situation where Russia seems to be continually probing the limits of what it can get away with.… Continue reading
Ukraine took out Russia’s only submarine-hunter aircraft before a historic Kilo-class sub strike, a sequence of events that highlights the evolving nature of modern warfare and Ukraine’s impressive strategic acumen. This wasn’t just any aircraft; it was a key asset for anti-submarine warfare, an Il-38, stationed in the Black Sea region. Its destruction, coupled with the subsequent successful attack on a Russian Kilo-class submarine, paints a picture of deliberate planning and a remarkable ability to leverage asymmetric warfare tactics. The precision and timing of these operations, especially, are the hallmarks of a well-executed strategy.
The removal of the Il-38, a critical platform for detecting and tracking submarines, likely created a significant vulnerability for the Russian naval presence in the Black Sea.… Continue reading
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) successfully disabled a Russian Varshavianka-class submarine in Novorossiysk port using the underwater drone Sub Sea Baby. This submarine, capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles used in attacks against Ukraine, is now effectively out of service. The attack was a joint operation between the 13th Main department of counterintelligence of SBU and the Ukrainian Navy. The estimated cost of this type of submarine is around $400 million, with potential construction costs now reaching $500 million due to international sanctions.
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Russia attacks two Ukrainian ports, damaging three Turkish-owned vessels, and it seems like the situation is getting even more complicated than it already was. You know, you can’t help but feel a certain sense of inevitability about these kinds of events, almost as if they were pre-ordained. The fact that the strikes happened after a phone call between Putin and Erdoğan just a few hours earlier definitely raises eyebrows. It feels like a calculated move, a statement being made, but the exact message is still a little fuzzy, isn’t it?
Turkey’s reaction, or perhaps lack thereof, is something that’s drawing a lot of speculation.… Continue reading
On Wednesday, Ukrainian forces utilized naval drones to strike the oil tanker Dashan, identified as part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea, causing critical damage and potentially disabling the vessel. This attack, carried out in coordination with the Ukrainian navy, marks the third such strike in two weeks, demonstrating a strategic shift toward targeting ships at sea alongside land-based energy infrastructure. The $30 million tanker, which was sailing with its transponder off, has been sanctioned by several Western countries and the EU for its role in Russian oil exports. This action is part of Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to disrupt Russia’s energy revenue, a critical source of funds for its war efforts.
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The tanker Kairos, identified as part of Russia’s shadow fleet, is stranded off Bulgaria’s Black Sea coast due to rough weather preventing authorities from boarding. The ship, which entered Bulgarian waters after being released by a Turkish tugboat, is currently empty and poses no immediate environmental threat. While the crew of ten is safe and in contact with officials, surveillance continues using radar and thermal cameras. Diplomatic efforts are underway to determine the vessel’s purpose, with plans to tow the tanker to a safe harbor once conditions improve.
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Adding to a series of recent maritime incidents, a Russian-linked tanker, the Midvolga 2, was struck in the Black Sea on Tuesday while en route from Russia to Georgia, carrying sunflower oil. This marks the fourth such attack in a week, following the bombing of the Mersin off the coast of Senegal and the attacks on the Kairos and Virat near the Bosphorus. While the crew was unharmed and the Midvolga 2 is heading to Turkey, the attacks have been linked to Ukrainian drone strikes targeting vessels suspected of circumventing sanctions against Russia.
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Ukrainian security sources have confirmed that underwater drones were used in attacks on two tankers, part of Russia’s shadow fleet, in the Black Sea. The strikes, which occurred on the Gambian-flagged Virat and Kairos, resulted in critical damage, effectively taking them out of service and disrupting the transportation of Russian oil. The Virat, sanctioned by multiple countries, sustained damage over two days while the Kairos saw all crew members evacuated following an explosion and fire. Additionally, a mooring point at the Russian port of Novorossiysk was hit by a marine drone.
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On November 28th, Ukrainian Sea Baby naval drones successfully targeted two sanctioned Russian oil tankers, Kairos and Virat, off the coast of Turkey in the Black Sea. The strikes disabled vessels linked to the Kremlin’s shadow fleet, which is known for evading international sanctions by transporting Russian oil. Both tankers, en route to a Russian port, were empty at the time of the attack. The operation, a joint effort with the Ukrainian Navy, delivered a significant blow to Russia’s oil transportation capabilities.
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Matt Underwood 
John Q. Hosedrinker