The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis canceled the release of its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP due to disruptions from the federal government shutdown, joining other delayed economic reports like the October jobs data. This postponement has fueled speculation that the data may reveal unfavorable economic performance, especially as President Trump touts strong growth amidst ongoing concerns. While the BEA has not set a new release date, the Federal Reserve Chair has acknowledged that the lack of data could impact policy decisions, further adding to the uncertainty surrounding the true state of the U.S. economy.
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Canada’s economy experienced its first contraction in almost two years, driven by a trade war with the US, which significantly impacted exports and business investment. The country’s gross domestic product decreased at a 1.6% annualized rate during the second quarter, marking the largest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. This data was released by Statistics Canada from Ottawa. The downturn underscores the economic vulnerability caused by strained international trade relations.
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Nebraska Representative Don Bacon warned that tariffs are negatively impacting his state’s economy, citing a 6% decrease in Nebraska’s GDP over the last year, primarily due to trade issues affecting corn and soybean exports. Despite a national GDP rebound in the second quarter, economists anticipate tariffs will create economic headwinds, particularly for states reliant on trade. Bacon, a critic of the trade policies, highlighted Nebraska and Iowa’s struggles, where agriculture plays a central role, as they face potential strain on commodity prices and exports. While the IMF upgraded global growth forecasts, experts like Thomas Sampson and Bill Adams foresee tariffs hindering U.S. economic growth.
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The U.S. economy experienced an unexpected contraction of 0.5% annually from January to March, according to the Commerce Department, a revision from the previously estimated 0.2% decline. This downturn was largely driven by a surge in imports as businesses and consumers rushed to purchase goods before potential tariffs were imposed, which had a significant negative impact on the GDP. Consumer spending also slowed considerably, and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index reflected growing economic pessimism. While a category measuring the economy’s underlying strength showed growth, federal government spending fell sharply, contributing to the overall economic contraction.
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Economic data released Thursday presented a mixed picture of the US economy. The final estimate of Gross Domestic Product showed a decline of 0.5% from January to March, with consumer spending growth slowing significantly. However, business investment remained positive, and new orders for durable goods surged. While unemployment claims increased, and the GDP decline was due to trade deficits, the Federal Reserve is likely to focus on inflation risks and the labor market when making decisions on interest rates.
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In a significant development ahead of the NATO summit, all 32 member states have agreed to a statement aiming for a 5% GDP increase in annual defense and security spending by 2035. This agreement follows the overcoming of Spanish objections to previous proposals, representing a key win for those advocating for increased defense budgets. While the statement awaits formal endorsement at the summit, it signals a substantial commitment to bolstering collective defense capabilities. The details of Spain’s change in stance remain undisclosed.
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California’s economy has surpassed Japan’s, securing its position as the world’s fourth-largest economy with a nominal GDP of $4.1 trillion. This achievement, driven by robust growth in tech, entertainment, manufacturing, and agriculture, places California ahead of Japan but behind the US, China, and Germany. However, Governor Newsom cautioned that the Trump administration’s tariffs threaten this economic success, prompting California to sue the federal government to protect its interests. Despite challenges like affordable housing shortages, California’s economy continues to thrive, though some sectors, like Canadian tourism, have experienced negative impacts from trade disputes.
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Argentina’s GDP unexpectedly grew by 3.9% in the third quarter, avoiding a recession and providing a boost to President Milei’s austerity measures implemented during his first year in office. While these measures have led to poverty rates exceeding 50%, the positive GDP growth suggests a potential turnaround. However, BBVA analysts highlight ongoing risks, including potential loss of political or market support and the performance of the agricultural sector. Despite these risks, the bank projects robust economic growth for Argentina in the coming years.
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John Q. Hosedrinker