India has recently surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, with a GDP of approximately $4.18 trillion. The nation’s economic review projects India to potentially reach $7.3 trillion by 2030, possibly becoming the third-largest economy in the world within the next three years. Growth, fueled by strong domestic demand, is expected to continue with a revised growth forecast of 7.3% for the 2025–26 financial year. Although India faces challenges like a wide GDP per capita gap and the need to create more jobs for its young population, the government remains optimistic about sustained expansion, with plans to reach a high middle-income status by 2047.
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While the latest economic data indicated strong growth exceeding 4%, a closer examination reveals a “split economy.” Primarily, the growth is fueled by spending from the top 20% of income earners, contrasting sharply with the struggles faced by those in lower income brackets, who are increasingly relying on buy-now-pay-later options. Further analysis highlights stagnant income growth for workers, with gains predominantly concentrated at the top of the income ladder. Consequently, a divergence is emerging where wealthy Americans’ take-home pay is rising significantly faster than that of poorer households, contributing to souring public sentiment on the economy despite the headline GDP figures.
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Xi Warns Officials Against Chasing ‘Reckless’ Expansion in GDP is a fascinating turn of events, especially considering the context of China’s economic trajectory. It’s almost as if the very person who likely set those GDP targets is now signaling a shift in priorities. The implication is clear: the relentless pursuit of growth at all costs might be causing more harm than good. It’s a move that suggests a focus on quality over sheer quantity, a sentiment that resonates with the idea of long-term sustainable development rather than short-term gains. The warning also seems to implicitly acknowledge that perhaps some of the reported GDP figures might be, shall we say, a bit embellished.… Continue reading
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis canceled the release of its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP due to disruptions from the federal government shutdown, joining other delayed economic reports like the October jobs data. This postponement has fueled speculation that the data may reveal unfavorable economic performance, especially as President Trump touts strong growth amidst ongoing concerns. While the BEA has not set a new release date, the Federal Reserve Chair has acknowledged that the lack of data could impact policy decisions, further adding to the uncertainty surrounding the true state of the U.S. economy.
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Canada’s economy experienced its first contraction in almost two years, driven by a trade war with the US, which significantly impacted exports and business investment. The country’s gross domestic product decreased at a 1.6% annualized rate during the second quarter, marking the largest decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. This data was released by Statistics Canada from Ottawa. The downturn underscores the economic vulnerability caused by strained international trade relations.
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Nebraska Representative Don Bacon warned that tariffs are negatively impacting his state’s economy, citing a 6% decrease in Nebraska’s GDP over the last year, primarily due to trade issues affecting corn and soybean exports. Despite a national GDP rebound in the second quarter, economists anticipate tariffs will create economic headwinds, particularly for states reliant on trade. Bacon, a critic of the trade policies, highlighted Nebraska and Iowa’s struggles, where agriculture plays a central role, as they face potential strain on commodity prices and exports. While the IMF upgraded global growth forecasts, experts like Thomas Sampson and Bill Adams foresee tariffs hindering U.S. economic growth.
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The U.S. economy experienced an unexpected contraction of 0.5% annually from January to March, according to the Commerce Department, a revision from the previously estimated 0.2% decline. This downturn was largely driven by a surge in imports as businesses and consumers rushed to purchase goods before potential tariffs were imposed, which had a significant negative impact on the GDP. Consumer spending also slowed considerably, and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index reflected growing economic pessimism. While a category measuring the economy’s underlying strength showed growth, federal government spending fell sharply, contributing to the overall economic contraction.
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Economic data released Thursday presented a mixed picture of the US economy. The final estimate of Gross Domestic Product showed a decline of 0.5% from January to March, with consumer spending growth slowing significantly. However, business investment remained positive, and new orders for durable goods surged. While unemployment claims increased, and the GDP decline was due to trade deficits, the Federal Reserve is likely to focus on inflation risks and the labor market when making decisions on interest rates.
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In a significant development ahead of the NATO summit, all 32 member states have agreed to a statement aiming for a 5% GDP increase in annual defense and security spending by 2035. This agreement follows the overcoming of Spanish objections to previous proposals, representing a key win for those advocating for increased defense budgets. While the statement awaits formal endorsement at the summit, it signals a substantial commitment to bolstering collective defense capabilities. The details of Spain’s change in stance remain undisclosed.
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California’s economy has surpassed Japan’s, securing its position as the world’s fourth-largest economy with a nominal GDP of $4.1 trillion. This achievement, driven by robust growth in tech, entertainment, manufacturing, and agriculture, places California ahead of Japan but behind the US, China, and Germany. However, Governor Newsom cautioned that the Trump administration’s tariffs threaten this economic success, prompting California to sue the federal government to protect its interests. Despite challenges like affordable housing shortages, California’s economy continues to thrive, though some sectors, like Canadian tourism, have experienced negative impacts from trade disputes.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood