Economic forecasts are dimming due to President Trump’s protectionist trade policies, specifically his threats of widespread tariffs on imports. These threats, coupled with already high interest rates, are expected to hinder capital investment and slow GDP growth. While some groups predict modest manufacturing growth, others, like Vanguard, foresee a significant decrease in GDP, potentially falling to as low as 2 percent depending on the extent of Trump’s trade actions. Trump’s claims of economic success appear contradicted by these independent analyses.
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In December, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plummeted 8.1 points to 104.7, falling below expectations and marking a sharp reversal from the previous two months. This decline was largely driven by a 12.6-point drop in the Expectations Index to a five-month low of 81.1, nearing the recessionary threshold of 80. Consumer concerns cited included political uncertainty and the anticipated impact of tariffs on the cost of living, outweighing any potential job creation benefits. The significant drop in consumer confidence is reflected in Walmart’s stock decline, prompting speculation of an impending recession.
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Addressing Russia’s economic challenges during his annual “Direct Line” Q&A, President Putin acknowledged high inflation, currently around 9.3%, driven by factors including rising food prices, a weaker ruble, and increased military spending. While blaming international sanctions for contributing to price increases, he also implied criticism of the central bank’s approach, suggesting alternative methods to curb inflation. Despite these concerns, Putin expressed confidence in the economy’s overall performance, projecting growth of 3.9-4% this year and 2-2.5% in 2024, contrasting with the IMF’s more conservative forecast. The government and central bank are tasked with managing a “soft landing” for the economy.
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The Federal Reserve’s announcement of fewer-than-expected interest rate cuts in 2025 triggered a significant market downturn, with the S&P 500 experiencing one of its worst days of the year, falling 2.9%. This decision, driven by a robust job market and rising inflation, contrasts with earlier projections of more substantial cuts. The resulting increase in Treasury yields negatively impacted stocks, particularly those of smaller companies heavily reliant on borrowing. The shift reflects the Fed’s cautious approach amid economic uncertainties, including those potentially stemming from the incoming administration’s policies.
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Despite a strong post-pandemic economy exceeding pre-Covid levels, the Biden administration faced electoral setbacks. This economic success, attributed to “Bidenomics,” involved novel policies resulting in positive economic indicators across the board. Central to Bidenomics was the principle of fair economic distribution, ensuring those contributing to the economy receive a proportional share. The administration’s economic approach, originating from a 2009 conversation between Jared Bernstein and then-Vice President Biden, yielded significant positive results worthy of future study and consideration.
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A recent WalletHub poll reveals that 74 percent of Americans anticipate increased inflation due to President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from countries including China, Canada, and Mexico. These tariffs, intended to protect American jobs and punish countries with allegedly unfair trade practices, could add 60 percent to the cost of Chinese goods and up to 20 percent to other imports. Experts warn that these increased costs will likely be passed on to consumers, resulting in higher prices for everyday goods and potentially significant financial losses for middle-income families. The ultimate implementation of these tariffs remains uncertain, contingent upon bipartisan support in Congress.
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Bringing down grocery prices, a key promise made during his campaign, is now acknowledged by Trump as a significantly challenging undertaking. He’s shifted from confident assertions of easily achievable price reductions to admitting the task will be “very hard.” This stark reversal highlights the complexities of economic policy and raises questions about the feasibility of his past pronouncements.
The difficulty, as he now explains, stems from the fact that prices have already risen, making any downward adjustment a much steeper climb than initially portrayed. It’s not simply a matter of flipping a switch; the economic forces at play are significantly more intricate.… Continue reading
Donald Trump’s campaign centered on a promise to curb inflation, a pledge he acknowledged as crucial to his victory. However, he is now expressing uncertainty about the feasibility of that pledge. This shift, discussed by NYT columnist Michelle Goldberg and More Perfect Union’s Faiz Shakir, reveals a potential disconnect between Trump’s campaign promises and his true economic priorities. Analysis of his post-election statements suggests a reconsideration of his initial commitment to tackling inflation.
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Despite previous claims of lowering grocery prices, Trump acknowledges the difficulty in reversing price increases. He cites improved energy supply and supply chain fixes as potential solutions, pointing to congested ports as evidence of ongoing supply chain issues. However, his proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, major sources of US fruits and vegetables, directly contradict this goal and will likely raise consumer prices. This suggests a disconnect between Trump’s stated objectives and the likely consequences of his economic proposals.
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During his campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized high grocery prices as a key issue, promising to lower them upon re-election, a pledge seemingly crucial to his victory. He attributed the high prices to President Biden’s policies and asserted his presidency would reverse this trend. However, Trump’s proposed economic plan, including substantial tariffs, is widely considered by economists to potentially exacerbate inflation, contradicting his campaign promises. Despite acknowledging the possibility of rising prices due to tariffs, Trump maintains his assertion that grocery prices will decrease, though offering no concrete guarantees.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood