The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center now forecasts a “super” El Niño as the most likely scenario from October 2026 to February 2027. This powerful phase of the ENSO cycle, characterized by significant sea surface temperature rises, has an increased probability of occurring, potentially ranking among the strongest El Niños in recorded history. Such an event could surpass recent record-breaking temperatures and lead to severe global impacts on food, water, and economic security, mirroring the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of past powerful El Niños.
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The United States is poised to experience its smallest wheat harvest in over fifty years, a stark reality projected by the USDA, primarily due to a relentless drought plaguing the Plains states. This looming scarcity, dating back to 1972, signals a potentially significant shift in agricultural output and food prices.
The drought conditions have severely impacted the crucial wheat-growing regions, stifling crop development and leading to diminished yields. This environmental challenge is not an isolated incident but rather a symptom of broader climatic shifts that are increasingly affecting agricultural productivity across the nation.
For bread enthusiasts, this news is undeniably disheartening.… Continue reading
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reached a new record high in April, averaging 431 parts per million (ppm) as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa Observatory. This continued increase, described by climate scientist Zachary Labe as “depressing” but expected, underscores the ongoing warming trend of the planet. Despite this concerning data, there are glimmers of optimism with the expanding use of renewable energy sources.
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Recent leaked internal memos reveal a troubling aspect of the Supreme Court’s decision to block the Clean Power Plan, the Obama administration’s landmark proposal to regulate carbon emissions from power plants. It appears the conservative justices at the heart of this ruling were overwhelmingly focused on the potential financial burdens placed upon the fossil fuel industry, to the stark exclusion of the escalating dangers posed by climate change. The documents reportedly dedicate sixteen pages to concerns about industry profits and the cost of compliance, yet offer zero pages acknowledging the very real and potentially irreversible harm of a warming planet. This selective focus, prioritizing corporate bottom lines over the health of our environment, has led to widespread criticism that the decision was agenda-driven and partisan, ultimately protecting corporate interests above the fundamental well-being of both the nation and the globe.… Continue reading
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has recently decided to adopt a new, more evocative term to describe days where temperatures soar above 40 degrees Celsius: “cruelly hot day.” This move signals a shift in how official bodies are communicating the escalating severity of heatwaves, opting for language that reflects the palpable discomfort and danger associated with such extreme temperatures. It’s an acknowledgment that the mercury climbing past 40 degrees Celsius is no longer just a scientific measurement but a direct assault on well-being.
It’s understandable why the JMA felt the need for a new term. The input suggests that this kind of extreme heat is becoming increasingly common, not just in Japan but globally.… Continue reading
New research indicates a critical Atlantic current system, the Amoc, is significantly more likely to collapse than previously understood. Scientists found that climate models predicting the largest slowdown are the most realistic, suggesting an estimated slowdown of 42% to 58% by 2100, a level almost certain to end in collapse. Such a collapse would have catastrophic consequences, including shifts in tropical rainfall, extreme weather in Europe, and significant sea-level rise. The weakening is attributed to Arctic warming due to global heating, which slows the sinking of cooler, saltier water.
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The emperor penguin has been officially declared endangered due to mass drownings of chicks caused by climate change-induced sea ice melt. These penguins critically depend on stable sea ice for breeding and moulting, but its early breakup has led to catastrophic colony collapses. Projections indicate a halving of the emperor penguin population by the 2080s without urgent action to decarbonize economies. The assessment also highlights the endangered status of Antarctic fur seals, also impacted by climate-driven food shortages, and the southern elephant seal facing extinction from disease.
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This March was the hottest on record for the continental United States, exceeding all previous months in history for its deviation from the norm. This record-breaking heat, which shattered over 19,800 daily and 2,000 monthly temperature records, follows the hottest winter on record and occurred during the driest January-March period in contiguous U.S. history. Forecasters predict that a potential “super” El Niño developing in the coming months will further intensify global warmth, possibly pushing temperatures past 2024’s record and causing significant shifts in weather patterns for years to come.
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A potent Kona storm is currently drenching Hawaii with heavy rain, posing a significant flood threat to areas still recovering from devastating March floods. The slow-moving system is expected to deliver widespread rainfall, with some locations potentially seeing months’ worth of precipitation in just a few days. Officials are preparing for possible evacuations and have activated emergency operations centers due to the increased risk of widespread flooding and landslides. The saturated ground from previous storms makes the current rainfall particularly dangerous, as it can lead to quicker and more severe inundation of land and waterways.
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John Q. Hosedrinker 
Matt Underwood